JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

Though EURUSD has made quite the run higher in recent weeks, this up trend is mature at high risk of reversing. Using Elliott Wave Theory, it is difficult right now to determine if the bullish impulse wave (one of the 5 basic Elliott Wave patterns) that created this up trend is over and if EURUSD is beginning to make a run at new lows (below 1.06) or if we see...

JWagnerFXTrader

This recent surge in gold may be the finishing touches on a 4+ year up trend. Gold appears to be in an ending waves at multiple degrees of trend. Perhaps gold taps the upper end of this channel, but it doesn't have to. After this impulse wave completes, a very large correction may take over. This correction may coincide with US Dollar strength. Look for the...

JWagnerFXTrader

Earlier in June, I laid out an Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin which proposed a correction deeper to 5500-7000. Zooming in on an intraday chart, it appears as though Bitcoin is getting ready to dump to 8,000 and possibly lower. Bitcoin has been adhering to the mid-line of a longer term price channel (yellow dotted line). It has decisively fallen below this line...

JWagnerFXTrader

Ether is primed for at least a 15% correction. After a completed impulse wave, I am anticipating a corrective structure down to $150-$200. This would represent a 15-35% correction depending on how deep into the box it corrects. Longer term HODL'ers will have an good opportunity to buy at these lower levels. Of course, no guarantees this will happen. I'm...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Interesting level here in USDCAD. The primary Elliott Wave pattern suggests a deeper cut, perhaps down to 1.33. However, we have horizontal resistance turned to new support from May 2017 in the way. Which pattern prevails? There is likely enough support to pop prices higher a little. So long as USDCAD is below the May 22 high, a break down below 1.38 is possible.

JWagnerFXTrader

Hi, Elliott Wave provides a structure to frame the market from. The price reaction today in Bitcoin occurred in a price zone of wave relationships for a 'D' wave of a large Elliott Wave triangle. If this is the correct scenario, then Bitcoin likely softens to 5500-7000. Below 8,600 may be an early warning signal of deeper losses coming. Below 7,454 signals a...

JWagnerFXTrader

Hi, EURUSD has hit our previously cited upside target...now the the minimum waves are in place on this recent up trend for EURUSD. Therefore, it is at risk for a reversal to the downside. Wait for the previous 4th wave to break before entering short. First target is near 1.0875. Second target is near 1.0635. There is a larger final target near 1.02. I'd give...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

EURUSD has been stuck in a sideways consolidation. This consolidation appears to be a triangle. Triangles are tricky to trade because they can extend further than expected. My current higher probability view is that we are in the final leg of the triangle. Once the final leg finishes, EURUSD may jump higher to 1.11 and 1.13. 1.11 is near the 61.8% fibonacci...

JWagnerFXTrader

Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to be moving higher in a 'c' wave. Within the 'c' wave, we appear more than half way through the impulse. If the trend continues higher, the area near 27k may offer a reaction. Regardless, my view is that the next major move is likely to the downside. Wave iv of 'c' or the wave 'b' low can offer a short entry on a break...

JWagnerFXTrader

The gap open higher today filled a gap from the COVID crash earlier this year. The minimum waves can be counted in place to consider this retracement higher as terminated. With such a count in hand, don't rush out to short. Let the market confirm to you that a top may be in. Wait for lower levels to break. If today's gap fills (tan box), it indicates a swing...

JWagnerFXTrader

Longer term top may have formed in gold earlier this week. We sent an alert to subscribers on Tues May 19 with a full analysis and entry points with risk. The up trend since 2015 is a double zigzag pattern labeled w-x-y. I can count the minimum waves in place at the May 19 high. A lot of harmony is found within the w-x-y waves and subwaves. Prices are sitting...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Hugely bullish and hugely bearish Elliott Wave patterns in the longer term are still on the table. The rally after halvening this week didn't eliminate or elevate several competing options. So long as Bitcoin price remains above 7454 this competition of wave counts remain. Below 7,454 we can begin to focus on a much deeper correction taking place. What do you...

JWagnerFXTrader

Silver is camped on top of the 78.6% retracement level -- this level is rooted within the fibonacci sequence and is considered the retracement of last resort. The up trend from March breaks down as a double zigzag in Elliott Wave terms, this is a corrective structure implying that the whole trend is likely to be retraced at some point in the future. I prefer...

JWagnerFXTrader

Chart on the left suggests we are in wave iv of C (ending diagonal)...one more dip lower to retest today's low to finish off the bearish sequence then we may see a strong rally. The chart on the right is a more traditional impulse and is one wave slower...so two more dips lower to finish off C then a strong rally. Trend lines support a hold below the April 7...

JWagnerFXTrader

Broadly speaking USD may strengthen so will GBPUSD be the outlier and GBP becomes stronger than USD? We have an impulse off the 1.14 lows which suggests another run higher while holding above 1.20. A couple more gyrations near current pricing so Cable may drift lower near term. If this is correct, there could be some interesting cross pair trades being bullish...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's recent rejection at trend line resistance suggests a round of selling my be on hand. Though medium term elliott wave counts can be viewed as bullish or bearish, multiple models point to a correction in price back to 5000-7400. From there, the models diverge. Therefore, keep an eye on the structure of the decline, should it develop. Its been a while...

JWagnerFXTrader

Last week's low generated a lower low so now we can apply some technical analysis to pick up some clues. It appears the bounce beginning Dec 22 is in zigzag form. Most Elliott Wave zigag patterns at this point are considered corrective and hints at a 11,500 or possibly 10,000 retest. There is a small chance this is the beginning of a diagonal which is short...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Elliott Wave model we have been following is that EURUSD is incomplete to the upside. In our September 4 report , we forecasted a "shallow correction back to the 1.16 handle." Now that prices have reached that level, it confirms the fourth wave is progressing as anticipated. We still are not sure of the shape, depth, and structure as we have 2 options...