JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Here we see an Elliott Wave count for GBPUSD. The market appears to be in a terminal wave at multiple degrees of trend. Once the minor 5 wave impulse higher completes (we appear to beginning iv now), then the market will be at risk of reversal. There are other wave relationships appearing in the 1.3450 price zone. I don't know if it will get that high, but a...

JWagnerFXTrader

USDCAD Elliott Wave pattern looks incomplete to the upside. We are anticipating dips may be supported as the 5 wave impulse finishes to the upside. Once the 5 waves are in place, then we will be anticipating a longer term top that could set up a large short trade (that is another post for another day). For now, let's track the impulse higher. It appears we are...

JWagnerFXTrader

Crude oil is approaching the neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If this pattern plays out, it suggest much higher prices for crude. When you consider that the Greenback has been mildly strong lately AND crude has advanced at the same time, this suggests some bullish undertones building below the surface. The Elliott Wave picture looks...

JWagnerFXTrader

Warning lights are flashing trouble ahead for DJIA. A move below the October 7 low would also punch below the blue support line and hint at further losses towards 17,000. As an aside, I am also watching a potential Elliott Wave triangle which we are in the 'D' leg. This would suggest another bump higher that holds below 18,450 followed by an aggressive dump in...

JWagnerFXTrader

USDJPY appears to be putting in the finishing touches to a corrective move lower. We can see an elliott wave impulsive move higher followed by what appears to be an a-b-c expanded flat correction. We can use wave measurements to gauge higher probability areas where blue wave 'c' may terminate. 3 areas I'm watching: 104.63 = wave 'a' low 103.90 = 38.2%...

JWagnerFXTrader

Yesterday, DJIA dropped into a potential reversal zone. This sets up a long opportunity and allows us to maintain a bullish bias. The 5 wave move from Feb 11 to April 20 allows us to maintain the bullish bias as only 50% of the uptrend has been retraced...that is after what is supposed to be a bearish outcome to the Brexit vote! This suggests that the ultimate...

JWagnerFXTrader

We have been tracking a potential ending diagonal pattern in EURUSD that suggests a retest of 1.17. This Elliott Wave pattern is running out of real estate to the downside to still remain valid. Therefore, if it is going to remain valid, prices will need to rally soon. As it stands, the labels I'm following currently place us in wave (b) of ((v)) in the ending...

JWagnerFXTrader

In about 3-4 hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia brings their latest round of monetary policy to the market with their rate announcement. The expectation is for the rate to hold steady. We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer...

JWagnerFXTrader

This is a shorter term look a few hours in advance of the ECB meeting Thurs morning and NFP Friday morning. For the medium term look, see the 4 hour chart on the link below. Bottom line, Elliott wave counts still point to higher levels. Below 1.1150 to 1.1050 the bullish view is stressed but still alive. I can stuff a bearish count into the picture, but 1.1250...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

EURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for...

JWagnerFXTrader

With the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

With the ECB event risk Thursday morning, let's take a step back and see what the higher probability patterns are. The preferred patterns being watched are bullish in nature. Both bullish patterns suggest we are in the 'C' wave of a large flat correction that began in March 2015. The March 24 low is the key level for the immediate bullish price action. A...

JWagnerFXTrader

The break above 1.1087 on Feb 3 eliminated the bearish impulse and left us with higher probability patterns of: *A 5 wave move higher beginning Dec 2015 that likely overcomes 1.1720 (bullish) *A bearish diagonal such that last week's 1.1376 high was wave 2 of the diagonal (near term bearish to below 1.0517) Though prices have sold off 200+ pips from last...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

On Wednesday afternoon (or Thursday morning in the Eastern part of the world), we have 2 central bank rate announcements within a couple hours time; 1) FOMC, 2) RBNZ.. This post is meant to assess the wave patterns prior to the news with key levels in focus. The bigger picture pattern we've been tracking is a W-X-Y dating back to 2011. This is a big pattern to...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> www.youtube.com ) It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag. There is another alternative that resolves as a...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

We've written about the GBP/USD a couple of times over the past month or so anticipating a wave 'B' bottom. This week, Sterling pivoted at the point where wave 'B' could be a false break down. This pattern we're favoring is the expanded flat pattern that began on March 18 2015. Wave A is a double (flat-x-zigzag) that terminated on June 17, 2015. Wave B as...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Last night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Wednesday afternoon, the Fed shares with us their view on monetary policy in the US. In advance of the news events, we like to take a step back and assess the patterns on the chart to identify some key levels to watch out for. This allows us to detach as best as possible when the news is released. Going into the news Wednesday afternoon, we're following this...