JamesRennie

JamesRennie

The top of Eliot wave 3 is based off relatively flat SAT growth expected based of BTC.D chart idea included in links. Based on ETH being close to mimicking BTC. The Eliot wave and FIb chart for BTC will shed some more understanding on the comparative hence I have also included that chart.

JamesRennie

Noise is the movement of the markets that will make you feel sea sick if your ride that emotional roller coaster. Many people try to ride high volatility and they quit. Simple way to deal with that is to use higher time frame to average out volatility. Instead of focusing on small non lasting movements you can focus on the greater trend. Unless your day...

JamesRennie

Look for long term holders to start to move to alt coins while new wave 3 money moves into Bitcoin. On the BTC.D chart I have marked a time window in 2016 that I think this could be very similar to. I don't think we are at a point yet where we will see a huge drop on BTC.D weekly chart. A large dollar spike on multiple alt coins is very possible as I have...

JamesRennie

Dow Jones falling below 6K would create a lot of social issues. Though I don't think it's an impossibility. Even if the market does not fall past that point waiting to buy once 200 EMA is crossed seems reasonable if done on 10 year trading window. I want to back test impact of trading below 200 EMA and Incorporate other FA and TA indicators.

JamesRennie

This is a continuation of post from yesterday that I have linked. Indicators used and purpose 21 weekly MA Comparison to moving average of price. Sitting below the mean. www.investopedia.com Linear Regression Time and Price comparison. www.investopedia.com Conclusion The issue I see with downward trend it would be highly limited. Worst case...

JamesRennie

Using weekly chart as daily chart seems to have a lot sudden movements and noise that end up not effecting the long term trend. This noise often is causing traders to make short term poor decisions on purely emotion. Indicators used and purpose Bollinger Bands to measure volatility Bollinger Bands indicating low volatility ahead. Momentum indicator ...

JamesRennie

The candles on monthly chart clearly show parabolic rise. A reduction in trading volume. With 50 month MA at about 165 reversion to me could mean 50% correction. Very over bought on RSI. Rapid increase in P/E ratio is showing that this crazy growth is not a result of a massive earnings growth. Likely there will be more FOMO by dumb money. There seems to be...

JamesRennie

140 days of relatively sideways movement. Looking to see weekly push up out of channel and which would also be above 21 weekly MA and EMA. Need to stay above both previous lows.

JamesRennie

First off please ignore wave 3 it's just a line no reason behind it's top. Mostly interested if in June a wave 4 will find a bottom at around 9200. As seen in image. With a 9200 bottom and likely a 30% - 50% pull back on wave that would mean a wave 3 of 12 000 - 18 000. That is some very nice growth.

JamesRennie

Looks like Bitcoin now has resistance at roughly 9200 and roughly 8400. A 800 point range. Resistance is clearly seen at fib line. There should be support at 21 MA though that is yet to be tested. Nice to see these pull back hopefully a clear higher low can be formed.

JamesRennie

Expect volatility to shake people out. Likely some sentiment dip with daily hitting resistance at 9k/200MA. Weekly is looking like the start of a new leg up though expecting alt coins to out perform Bitcoin till the next correction.

JamesRennie

This weeks candle has dipped below 21 weekly avg. Though its a good start towards indication of alt season it currently is just cause for attention. Looking through this chart I see no clear trend though I have marked 2016-2017 for the pattern to watch for. I am just watching to see how this play out.

JamesRennie

Due to reversion to mean (www.investopedia.com) I find it highly probable that DJI will take significant long term losses. During the 2008 Crash the market dipped through the 200 monthly MA. Look to see this happen again as repo market is already seeing cash injections. Expect to see a bail in rather then a bail out this time. Here for example is some...

JamesRennie

RSI is currently sitting high with possible rejection from 200 EMA resistance. Though this could mean a short term downwards movement Risk Reward top to bottom is at 3.62. Any gains on downwards movement will have to be taken quickly and would be a risky play.

JamesRennie

If 21 Weekly MA is broken it is likely ETH will go long. If it failed to break out and stay above 21 weekly on close with wick being above 21 MA look for short towards bottom of channel. MACD as charted looking relitively flat since last move up looking for start of upward or downward movement on that indicator. The gains have been made on daily weekly RSI is...