JebusLives

JebusLives

TLT has lost its uptrend, and lost the 200D EMA. There's a very long term support line at $94, perhaps we'll get a bounce here that keeps things level until we get the next rate cut. I'm out of TLT for now, will look to rebuy when I see something that looks like a bottom, or around Halloween in anticipation of a run up leading into the Nov FOMC. Anyone have...

JebusLives

This chart paints the Macro in a way that really speaks to me. TLT got smashed by rate hikes. Bond values being fairly tightly connected to interest rates. Interest rates also impact the stock market, and housing market, but with a long and variable lag. ... looks to me like we're still in that 'lag' period.

JebusLives

While I think we'll see a rate cut cycle start soon, I anticipate it will only restoke inflation.

JebusLives

I'm not currently a bull, but does this RSI divergence look like it's signaling that we're about to break out?

JebusLives

In 2008 VIX tested 35 multiple times, fell in to a wedge pattern, then 🚀🚀🚀

JebusLives

FOMC tomorrow is going to pop the RSI divergence that's forming. .. and we have two recent gaps to fill. My best guess: 50BPS hike announced tomorrow, and we fill both gaps. SPY 400, if just for a moment before we tank again. Second best guess: 75BPS hike, and we only fill one gap, then resume the downtrend. I think the only red scenario is the 100BPS hike,...

JebusLives

Sorry for the super ugly chart, but there's lots going on here. Focus on that RSI, let's start with the red wedge. Clearly there was a pullback there with the RSI consolidating below 50, but that pattern broke to the upside, and we broke out to retest 360. As we get in to the yellow wedge, you'll see the ghost feed, and my predictions begin. I'm assuming we're...

JebusLives

Over the last year we've been forming an RSI divergence on oil, and we're seeing increasing volatility. There are a lot of geo-political factors at play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. .. increasing volatility means sharper moves. I'm watching for Russia / Ukraine to resolve, and depending on how it resolves, expecting...

JebusLives

How low do we go? Does JPow say the right things on Wednesday to fire up the rocket engine to SPY 500? Does he throw gasoline on the fire by talking about rate hikes, and announce a quantitative tightening schedule? I think the former. I'm watching FOMC, will be ready to catch a ride on that rocket, whichever way it goes. My prediction is that we're going to...

JebusLives

We've tried the long term downtrend today. We got a rejection today, but we have momentum. Let's see how that goes :D

JebusLives

Previous time this divergence occurred drove a 43% drop in oil prices.

JebusLives

WTI keeps setting higher highs, but the RSI on the longer timeframe is weakening. OPEC doesn't want to sink the market, but between Saudi and UAE there are over 3 millions barrels a day offline, and OPEC is committed to continued supply increases. Omicron is driving major disruptions to travel. Biden has the gun loaded to cool off oil prices as well. I'm looking...

JebusLives

We have a strong divergence forming in the RSI. I'll be watching this formation closely looking for an entry point. If the RSI breaks out of the ascending wedge, it looks like a short opportunity. I'll also contemplate an entry if that RSI wedge gets near completion. While this is a SPY chart, QQQ puts are also on the menu.

JebusLives

One more for the series - When using a log chart, it demonstrates that VIX has been moving up for quite some time.

JebusLives

Looks like time to go short. The description is requiring that I put more words here, so these are words.

JebusLives

VIX tends to trend down in nice descending triangles. This looks different. What comes next?

JebusLives

The VIX appears to be curling up. I've been watching this trend for awhile. Are we setting up for VIX 100 soon?

JebusLives

I've taken the last bounce, and overlaid it on our current timeline to create this artwork.