JimHuangChicago

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry Futures ( CME:SXR1! ) Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the latest Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income gained $131.1 billion (0.6%). Disposable personal income (DPI) added $387.4 billion (2.0%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $312.5 billion (1.8%) for the month...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists. What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: S&P Technology Select Sector ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January and +6.4% year over year, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, Core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% yearly. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the headline CPI to grow 0.4% monthly and 6.2%...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: USD/RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! ) US-China relations are arguably the most challenging bilateral relations in the 21st century. It has been in a free fall since the 2018 trade conflict. The competition has intensified and spread to investment, technology, among other arenas since then. On November 14th, 2022, President Biden met with President Xi during the...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

E-Mini S&P ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ), 10-Year Note ( CBOT:ZN1! ) True or False? • US Government has never defaulted on its debt obligations. • US Treasury bonds have always maintained AAA credit ratings. A history lesson: In June 1812, 30 years after the Revolutionary War, the U.S. declared war against Britain and Spain. In August 1814, British...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Pork Cutout ( CME:PRK1! ), CBOT: Corn ( CBOT:ZC1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ) Diversification is a fundamental concept in investing. In order to minimize the chances that market volatility wipes out your entire net worth, it is important to put your money in several investments with different levels of risk and potential return. This is summarized nicely in...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

Fed Funds Futures (ZQ) CBOT:ZQ1! , 2-Yr Yield (2YY) CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , 10-Yr Yield (10Y) CBOT_MINI:10Y1! This is the third report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% in December 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1! This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: E-Mini Select Sector Futures ( CME_MINI:XAZ1! , CME:SOX1! , CME_MINI:BIO1! , CME_MINI:XAV1! , CME_MINI:XAB1! , CME_MINI:XAK1! , CME_MINI:XAI1! ) According to Chinese Zodiac, tigers are vigorous, daring, competitive and unpredictable. 2022, the Year of Tiger, was symbolized by these bursts of power: • First war in Europe after World War II...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), COMEX: Copper Futures ( COMEX:HG1! ) Two weeks ago, China abruptly overhauled its strict Covid policy that had been in place for nearly three years. Lockdowns, health codes, massive testing, and domestic travel restrictions are no longer enforced. “The world changed overnight,” said one of my friends. From Zero-COVID to “Lying...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) The Fed’s 2022 Rate Decisions While we reflect on 2022, an eventful year full of “the unexpected”, rate hikes have undoubtedly dominated the headlines. In eight rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the US central bank hiked the Fed Funds rate seven times, taking it up from 0.25% to...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) and BTC Options ( CME:BTC1! ) On December 11th, Bitcoin is trading at $16,890, down 63% year-to-date. Current price falls below 50-day moving average (MA) of $18,300 and 200-day MA of $26,470. Meanwhile, Open Interest of CME Bitcoin Futures (BTC) has been growing from about 8,000 lots to 14,000 in December. This strongly...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Eurodollar Futures ( CME:GE1! ), CBOT: Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) This is the second installment of the Holidays series “Celebrating 50 Years of Financial Futures.” Before 1970, commercial banks did business by accepting short-term deposits at low regulated rates and offering longer-term business and personal loans at higher rates. Double-digit...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ), E-Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) While football fans are fervently following the 2022 World Cup, we analogize the Federal Reserve’s year-long battle with surging inflation to a football match. In this game, the Core CPI had an early advantage over the Fed Funds Rate, at 6.00% vs. 0.25% in January. The Fed mounted decisive...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

This is a Thanksgiving Special Report. Swiss Franc ( CME:6S1! ), Canadian Dollar ( CME:6C1! ), Japanese Yen ( CME:6J1! ), British Pound ( CME:6B1! ), Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ) In May 1972, International Monetary Market (IMM), a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), launched futures contracts on seven currency pairs. This was the world’s first...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ) On August 17th, I published “Market Impacts of US Midterms Elections”. Thanks to your support, it made it to “Editors’ Picks” and was featured in TV Digest newsletter in an email themed “Midterms are Coming” to all subscribers. With the midterm elections coming to an end, it’s a good time to reassess the...

JimHuangChicago Wizard Updated 

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin (BTCUSD) fell below the psychologically important $30,000 level in the beginning of June, after it briefly reached $31,800 on May 30th. In early May, the leading cryptocurrency touched bottom around $25,000 amid the US stock market selloff. Extreme price volatility is the trademark of Bitcoin throughout its history. Crypto investors’...