We should start dumping GOLD and all Crypto mid year
Watch this space for more update, OIL is now bearish . We are setting second sell limit at 86.17
This is an update to our previous analysis below
After 3.8 this might head for 1.5. This is an update on the previous monthly analysis here:
We will dive deeper into medium term. But these are historical information to guide our future speculation and Elliot wave count.
Dollar slipping away before next year bullish move. This is the daily view of our monthly analysis here.
This analysis is based on Elliot wave, channel and fib. There is a strong resistance here, break higher means we keep going higher. I prefer to see the second path where there is retracement before breaking higher.
Maybe Russia and Ukraine would resolve conflict OR More supply of oil from another major oil supplier
I think we should have a lot of sellers taking profit at 16.5k but higher probability we will stall until Q4 around September before we bottom around 13.2k.
Update on Gold from last Wave count below. We expect 1550 before we see the real buy momentum. Lets see if this will be a result of FED U-turn on rate or fresh recession fears/political instability. DXY is almost at the top top.
These is updating our previous elliot wave count (see link below) and journey down to 2.XX. The world will be better again!!!
Here, I have updated the fib lines and channels, oil is likely to drop from here through Q3 and Q4, and maybe bottom in December 2022. OPEC is likely to keep increase production. We may see it as wxyxz to bottom right below 70. Next wave up might be a truncated wave that may not exceed 130. Monthly and weekly RSI is overly bought.
We picked the top and labelled the major structure (see previous gold analysis link below). Zoom into chart for details of sell zone at c of abc here at 4. I will update often here soon.
I will expect a 5-3-5 wave downward from here. Hopefully we will go down to $2.7xx by Q3 2023
16k-17k is the sweet spot (i) Maybe Musk tweet or ; (ii) Any tangible shift on acceptance as payment solution. And I wont be surprised to see Gold investors turning to crypto at this level.
I wish I could say a lot but I have no comment. And I hate to admit the correlation I see here.
We may see 88 stall the drop but fail until we reach 77 before any bounce to 100-102 area. Then we could see further drop to 66 to complete the wxyxz at wave (Y)
We may see bear flag on daily before support breaks. Better to sell breakout or wait for ret after break and sell. Major buy at 15xx/1460