JohnKicklighter

JohnKicklighter

USDJPY - and all the yen crosses - have seen material progress in the form of rally over the past three years, based heavily on the influence of QE. That said, the bulk of the progress comes from anticipation rather than the actualization of fresh support.

JohnKicklighter

No surprise that Greece is the worst performing of the major European regions in 2015. Not only does it have its ongoing economic, financing and political issues; but the 'life-giving' QE that has washed over the Eurozone doesn't easily filter into the country.

JohnKicklighter

The RBA cut rates 25 bps in both its February and May meetings, yet AUDUSD remarkably held strong after initial losses in both instances. Debating a rate cut again this meeting, a hold gives a more decisive outcome.

JohnKicklighter

It seems a little new on Greece - at least the right news - can generate a serious response from the Euro. We currently have the largest daily rally in three months. Prior to that March reversal from lows, we haven't seen a comparable swell since back in June 2010.

JohnKicklighter

The economic docket is dense through the coming week. Key event risk includes US NFPs, a Greek IMF payment, ECB and RBA rate decisions among plenty of other listings. Amid the fracas, I watching to see what bearing and momentum develop for the Dollar and Volatility measures.

JohnKicklighter

The Shanghai Composite - the best performing equity index this year and the past few years cumulatively - suffered a painful loss this past week. It is so far only 48 hours of trouble, but can a market built on exuberant speculation stand up to crises of confidence?

JohnKicklighter

We have cleared a USDJPY triple top that took months to form. Technically, there is just a previous swing high from 2007 that seems to stand in the pair's way. Fundamentally though, this is a much more rocky path to pursue.

JohnKicklighter

Since the S&P 500 overtook its 2007 peak high - back in March 2013 - the benchmark has closed daily record highs 108 times. The market's not invincible but that is strong reason to remain, at the very least, complacent.

JohnKicklighter

We overtook the previous record high close on the S&P 500 back in March of 2013. Since then, the index has set closed at a record high of 108 times. This market is not unstoppable. But, when will investors give way?

JohnKicklighter

A simple pattern: an inverse head and shoulders setup. GBPNZD has one, but this one is long-term. Best seen on the weekly chart, when the pair broke above 2.10, it cleared an important technical level on an extended basing phase.

JohnKicklighter

I like to see the old fashion 'former resistance as new support' scenarios play out. Seems to be the case with GBPUSD holding at 1.5500. Also can qualify as the neckline for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

JohnKicklighter

AUDUSD makes a big move to clear a heavy confluence of resistance and completely collapses shortly after the heavy lifting is done...

JohnKicklighter

The EURUSD's selling has been persistent and aggressive. However, that doesn't mean that it will end with an abrupt reversal. The circumstances for its decline run much deeper than technicals and they are not as easy to resolve as Greece finding short-term funding. I'll keep my bias bearish, but positioning depends on better entries and reasonable targeting.

JohnKicklighter

This is a seven month count whereby the DXY has traded above its 2 StDev upper Bollinger Band. Be careful. That matches the most extreme move since 1981.

JohnKicklighter

Volatility levels have diminished these past four weeks, but the trend is still materially higher. Investors are growing more aware of the limitations for the complacency / moral hazard run for equity benchmarks and other capital markets that benefit risk trends. The question for me is when the next lasting swell in 'risk' is found. Do we wait for the FOMC next...

JohnKicklighter

There is a familiar pattern of short-term rallies that transition into consolidation and collapse in rather spectacular form. All of it happens within a definable channel that goes back to the the very beginning of 2013. I think this is a sign - particularly the last 6-9 months - that there is a short-term mentality amongst the speculative ranks. Should it look...

JohnKicklighter

I have been focusing on the daily chart for EURAUD and like the fundamental disparity between the two currencies. But the weekly picture has made me really take note of this pair's position.