JohnKicklighter

JohnKicklighter

Gold's drop these past week's has been exceptionally consistent. The tumble has brought it back into contact with the July/August lows. That isn't the extent of history these levels have however. The 1,085 level is the mid-point (50% Fib) of the commodity's range going back decades. Make or break?

JohnKicklighter

One of the unquestionable, positive outcome from monetary policy tightening by the Fed will be the eventual return of higher returns. This is not focused on more expensive borrowing costs - though that comes hand in hand - but rather investors no longer have to slump to extremely risky assets to make up meaningful returns. Savers will once again see their funds...

JohnKicklighter

The 2-10 spread and equity markets are good leading indicators of a stall in economic activity. Yet, has that signal been broken or delayed by the exceptional monetary policy accommodation by the Fed and global central banks? Are fundamentals that good or is this a distortion hiding underlying conditions.

JohnKicklighter

Where is the action at? Though there are definitive spikes for various asset classes, it seems FX and China-based activity measures tend to remain the most buoyant of the readings.

JohnKicklighter

After a six-week rally, the S&P 500 has stalled short of record highs and made the unfavorable move of breaking its rising wedge formation. Now out of its bullish current and with a big range ahead of it, we have the 200 and 20-day moving averages just below. If it breaks, expect more of the medium-term swing bulls to fold.

JohnKicklighter

After hitting a 12-year high through March/April, USDollar lost all of the momentum of its record-breaking 10-month rally. For the rest of 2015, the currency turned to consolidation. The currency wouldn't fully reverse as its fundamental backdrop was still robust compared to counterparts, but lacking the draw to fuel more gains. That has changed these past two...

JohnKicklighter

USDJPY is a unique pair. It reflects both the drive that relative monetary policy has imbued in the FX market, but it is also very sensitive to risk trends. The pair rallied this past week when NFPs charged Fed rate forecasts. However, what happens if a withdrawal of support from the largest central bank triggers risk aversion? This pair is likely to show its true...

JohnKicklighter

While the notional levels are different and the historical relevance, both the Dollar and S&P 500 are staring down the same general 2015 resistance. For the currency, it is the 12-year high set in March/April. For the equity index, it is the record high set in May. Both are within reach. Both have distinct connection go Friday's top event risk: October NFPs. Will...

JohnKicklighter

NFPs are good for volatility, but its the underlying aspects of the labor report that matter more for trend development to the Dollar. Unemployment is one of the Fed's dual mandates on monetary policy, and that rate has dropped steadily for nearly six years. When the disinflaiton anchor is cast away, the Fed will start normalizing monetary policy and send...

JohnKicklighter

The Dollar Index is just off a 12-year high, so making the next move higher will require serious conviction and is thereby more difficult to achieve. However, that doesn't stop the Greenback from moving on certain pairings. EURUSD for example has a good range down to 1.05 which it is already actively tracking out. But pairs like USDCHF sitting just below very...

JohnKicklighter

The RBA rate decision to hold rates shook loose some speculative shorts positioned for a possible rate cut. With that flush, an Aussie bid pushed AUDNZD through its channel top, allowing technicals and medium-term fundamentals to take over. I went long on the channel break and already took half off with a trailed stop.

JohnKicklighter

Noise versus signal. Was the NZDUSD's rally from late September the noise or the signal. Looking at a bigger picture chart, the dominant trend looks bearish. If we break the floor of this descending channel, it will be a strong vote for the bears retaking control.

JohnKicklighter

If the market's skepticism over a Fed hike in the next six months is disappears, the USDollar may find its next thrust to clear that 12-year high.

JohnKicklighter

I didn't know if Trading View would support it. Apparently, it does. Here we can calculate the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year using the December Fed Funds futures (100-contract value, divided by the hike rate of 37.5 basis points). Currently that percentage stands at 52% according to this. If we can get this to 75% or higher, USDollar may...

JohnKicklighter

The Japanese pension fund GPIF announced on September 30 a new mandate to invest in international emerging market and high-yield securities - a risky endeavor for a pension system but necessary given the tepid returns and growing liabilities. How long does this new wind keep these assets aloft? What happens to Japan's pension fund should the markets take a deeper dive?

JohnKicklighter

We have one more trading day in the month and the SPX is already floating one of the best monthly performances we have seen in quite a long time. In fact, the current standing (via eminis) is the third strongest month in over 15 years.

JohnKicklighter

The nail that sticks up the furthest is hammered first. The S&P 500 leads US equities in their remarkable climb through October, but other asset types with a sensitivity to investor sentiment seem to be disagreeing with the bullishness/optimism insinuated by stocks. Is this a divergence that will last and build? Will one side conform to the other? I am dubious of...

JohnKicklighter

While the SNB has abandoned the floor on EURCHF, it hasn't given up on its efforts to remain in step with ECB monetary policy. They can't afford to. In the drive to accommodation in the Eurozone, there is a lag from Switzerland and potentially a capital inflow that can drive the Franc higher. With the ECB contemplating a QE upgrade in December, the SNB may be...