John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

See my previous posts on this instrument for further background. I need only to post this very simple Weekly chart for CME_MINI:ESH2023 to support my view that the S&P 500 has made a trend reversal and is now recovering from the year long downtrend that started in January 2022. Main Points The index has broken the very solid down trend line that...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Happy New Year Everyone ES March Contract has broken into the daily Ichimoku Cloud structure and we are in for a bumpy ride to start the year which should see the index continue it's journey south. The index gapped higher at the open of the CME on the evening of January 2nd but quickly retreated from the weekly pivot R1 and the 21 Day EMA levels. We'll have...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

See my previous posts on ES December contract which has now expired or will expire soon. I have now switched to the March contract. This week we broke a lower upward sloping trendline that has held since at least June 30th. The price also failed to hold above the 200 Day MA and the upper declining trendline that has held since January 4th 2022. On the...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

About me - I'm a qualified Technical Analyst, a member of The Society of Technical Analysts in London and ,I trade my own capital part time. ES1 / SPX is my most traded instrument and I've been trading it for over 20 years. If you find my analysis useful please do hit the like and follow buttons. As a member f the Society of Technical Analysts I am providing...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

See my post of November 6th for more background In my November 6th post I noted that the 4040 area would be important for ES December Contract. The Index rallied to the 4050 area but failed there on November15th and hasn't had a daily close above 4040 since then. We are now approaching this area again and might see a correction to the 3950 / 3935 area before a...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

ES trading in a range and difficult to call a definite direction this week. I think we may see short term bullish in the hourly to daily charts then a possible retest of the 200 week MA before a rally back towards year end. ES December contract could be developing a large bear flag pattern but is well supported by 200 Week MA at 3615 area. So, what sometimes...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Pricing going up Volume, MFI, RSI all declining. These diverging indicators al point to the current up leg running out of steam and a correction to follow.

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

See comments in text box and previous post showing another possible bearish scenario

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

**Bearish View** Weekly close below August high of 4542.50 ABC correction possibly still underway Failed retest of lower trend line in channel that goes back t November 2020 Daily candle at Friday close is a doji Daily RSI showing negative divergence Recent rally not supported by volume Similar playbook to October 2020 correction **Alternative...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

ES is in a battle between Bulls and Bears as evidenced by the developing Megaphone pattern on the 1 Hour. Also, consider the following - Nearby significant round number and psychological level of 3200. A likely battleground area for buy the dip buyers and short covering sellers. - The daily pivot S1 level is 3195. - Meanwhile, the nearby 3214 area is the...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

The daily chart on Gold is possibly showing a complex ABC correction from recent highs. The yellow metal is firmly below the 50 Day EMA and there is very little in the way to obstruct it's journey down to major support at 1,750 area. The MACD on the daily is bearish.

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

Before considering a bearish view of PA I'd like to see 1.Daily close below 2163 2. RSI (7 day) daily close below 50 3. Increased volume to confirm accelerating rate of decline

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Reasons for Bearish outlook Daily RSI (7 day) at 44.1 Possible H&S forming Symmetrical triangle formation Bearish daily candle on Friday 17th Close on Friday 17th was below both 10D EMA and 21D EMA Break of lower trend line and price support zone of 1.2980 - 1.2960 could lead to stronger bearish moves. Triangle target (if lower trend line broken) is 1.26 area.

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe Updated 

Now that AUDJPY has reached my target (from last Friday - see previous chart) of 76.1 I'm looking for a neckline break of a possible reverse H&S on on the weekly chart. There's also a smaller possible H&S forming on the H4 chart that coincides. A WEEKLY close above the neckline and the EMA 50 week line will show more bullish potential in this pair. Look left...

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Hate it when I miss one like this. Perfect ascending wedge break down.

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Previous strong trend line break could change things. Important to wait for neckline break and retest at 75.4 area

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

Reverse H&S neckline break . Small pullback. Possible continuation.

John_Tuohy_MSTA_CFTe

A lot going on on the D1 chart at the 1.0500 level Price at round number 1.0500 Break and retest of major trend line (see monthly and weekly chart) 50D EMA nearby Daily (classic) pivot nearby Daily MACD is Bullish Double top on weekly chart Monthly and weekly chart show break down and retest of lower line bearish ascending triangle. Needs retest and...