Last week, we talked about the hope that the indices would take a breather. It is taking a small breather, which would rhythmically aid in its next move upward. While tech stocks were beat down today. Most other ETFs had moved higher - Financials, Consumer Products, Energy, Utilities, and so on.
There is some risk of more selloff in indices, especially if it...
Lots of short seller were hoping for a much more negative reaction to jobs revisions. While the revision is large, it ultimately doesn't derail expectations much. More likely, smart money will use the opportunity to squeeze short sellers into a pop upwards tomorrow and break through the current resistance level on indices. Keep an eye on overnight behavior,...
Last week we predicted a squeeze during the week of PPI and CPI. The TVC:VIX has also a target for weakness. However, the value play on the VIX is diminishing after this week. Oil and gold is in a weird situation. I had originally predicted Oil to outperform Gold over the next 30 cycle creating some divergence. We'll see that divergence plays out more in...
Retail investor who are looking for longs are largely gun shy and sidelined after this dramatic selloff. Choppiness in indices are keeping them there. Indices have not been able to clear a resistance, but both XLF and XLP have cleared above resistance levels. I expect the broader markets to follow XLF as inflation data is released.
I expect price action to be...
Major decision upcoming on Friday - especially for shortsellers. PPI and CPI data is around the corner. Trouble for shortsellers, because neither of those data will likely be bad. TVC:VIX is already in a difficult to defend position for shortseller and they'll get a double whammy on Op-Ex week. The market will squeeze shortsellers quickly in the area above...
Don't think there's good value in precious metals, right now. It'll likely under perform against oil and indices over the next 30 days. In all likelihood, investor are rotating out of the gold position and will continue to do so in the coming weeks. A better choice would be oil than precious metals.
The debate among traders is if this is a real bear flag that's forming and there's another leg down for the indices? Or, if the bottom, had be set by the lows on Monday.
I believe that the lows were established on Monday and the indices are consolidating and will move upward soon. This consolidation period also allows the moving averages to catch up after the...
TVC:VIX is bent way out. Deviation makes the TVC:VIX vulnerable - especially with Op-Ex nearing. We can see a substantial crush downward play out. We'll get our first clues - with moving average crossovers on the lower time frames - by Wednesday and Thursday .
Indices will likely approach 2 standard deviation by end of Monday. VIX's deviation is bent farther than that. There's very little signs of letting up. But if the market were to find a bottom, it would likely do so on Tuesday or Wednesday. Look for RSI to show strengthening and entries on Thursday/Friday.
If we take a step back, markets should finish the year...
