Still a valid short position, point of invalidation for a short marked out.
Not a particularly clean cut ABCD pattern or meets the ratios of a harmonic pattern, but a bear move seems likely.
With the aggressive Saudi initiative to have higher oil prices and possible constraining of Iranian production with the sanctions it seems improbable that a short would materialize given those factors. But technically without those interventions a clear bear signal exists. I would short it below the support.
I'm placing a short pending order below 26080, for the moment the bull run is very strong and seems set to continue, but the position fits my valid entry setup for also a short. Will let it stay for a couple of days and cancel if it does not pan out.
This is not because Amazon doubled the price for it is Prime customers... it was a technical foregone conclusion the pattern started March 13, (first corner), April 2nd (second corner) and to complete the "triangle of doom" April 27 (3rd corner). Fundamentals matter, but this is just TA, and am fairly comfortable with a medium term short.
I have had a long signal for this pair since last week but obviously it kept going down down and it didn't pan out. I have had to now simply look at the levels from the weekly bird's eye view. This is my hypothesis of the possible turning points and levels of interest if a rally will materialize.
Instead of publishing individual charts for USD pairs, I think with the NFP coming out today the most significant part of the equation is the dollar index. First the dollar is in no uncertain terms in a mega bull trend, what everyone is trying to play is the expected retracement to the previous monthly low level and then back to the uptrend. But FIRST the DXY has...
I'm definitely more certain of a short for this German Index. (I'm referring to MDAX short analysis that I just published, a long shot on that one)
I have used GBPUSD to demonstrate the direct effect of the DXY analysis I have just published.