Killy_Mel

Killy_Mel

Following the OPEC decision to avoid cutting their oil production, WTI Oil has again broken down from its relevant range border, this time it looks like for good. Price is now significantly below both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above below 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more downside probability. The move will...

Killy_Mel

After the WTI Oil has confirmed its breakdown from its relevant range, USDRUB reacted accordingly - by breaking out from its range it has been in since September. Price is now above both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above upper 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more upside probability.

Killy_Mel

USDRUB continues to trade within borders we defined in our last update, however the range has narrowed. (see related idea) As volatility compresses, and the price is trading between upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean and lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean, there current range now is 62-66.5 USDRUB is very correlated to WTI Oil, which is...

Killy_Mel

WTI Oil continues to trade within the its relevant range, marked by the 1st standard deviations from 66 day (quarterly mean). So far it held 2 breakout attempts and has stopped compressing since our last update (see related idea). The eventual break from the range is very likely to be powerful, as the longer the price sits within it, the more energy it has for...

Killy_Mel

IRX, the 13-Week Treasury Bill yield has spiked above its relevant highs of 0.05 after the recent FOMC announcement, which hinted of a potential review of the Fed's Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate (now at 0-0.25%) This spike in prices indicates that at the moment the expectations for the rate range hike are present, as IRX is closely correlated to Federal...

Killy_Mel

US housing market, measured by New Home Sales is continuing its recovery in line with its relevant trendline, in line with Housing Starts and Building Permits data. However in comparison to Starts and Permits, New Home Sales data comes in with a much softer slope. Thus the expected recovery of this indicator is expected in 2020, if its relevant uptrend holds....

Killy_Mel

Detailed unemployment measures (part-time employment and long term unemployed) continue to trend down within their relevant descending ranges, however did not yet restore - unlike headline indicators (such as Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate), confirming the Fed's words regarding still weak employment market. If the indicators stay within their relevant...

Killy_Mel

Jobless claims continue to trend down within relevant descending range. Currently reached a cyclical low, last seen in 2000 and 2006. Thus the short term unemployment indicator shows that on one hand, situation is improving, but on the other hand it will be difficult to trade lower - and a cyclical upturn in Jobless Claims could be in the cards.

Killy_Mel

XLU - the SPDR utilities sector ETF is struggling to get back into macro uptrends, while showing no bias on short term. On long term perspective the price is trading around upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, which is a 5-year uptrend border. The price is also technically in 10-year uptrend, trading above the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year...

Killy_Mel

XLK - the SPDR Tech sector ETF s in firm uptrend both on macro and on micro perspective, and it is the best-looking US sector ETF from the SPDR range. On long term perspective price has broken back into the 5 and 10 year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from 5 and 10 year means respectively On long term perspective price has recently broken...

Killy_Mel

XLB trades within uncertain territory both on macro and micro basis. On long term perspective price has failed its 10 and 5 year trends, and now trades between 2 macro levels - the 5-year mean at 41.50 and the 10-year uptrend border at 46.50. On short term perspective price also showing no particular trend - XLB is trading within 1st standard deviations from...

Killy_Mel

XLI holds 10-year uptrend at the august selloff, but did not yet recover its 5-year uptrend. On long term perspective price has failed its 5-year uptrend (fell below 5-year uptrend border) and tested its 10-year trend during the august selloff (tagged the 10-year uptrend border). The 10-year uptrend test proved successful and the price has been recovering since...

Killy_Mel

US Budget Balance has restored to its normal levels, last seen back in 2004 and right before the financial crisis fallout - in 2008. ... The balance suffered a significant blow during the fallout of 2008/9 us mortgage crisis. Government stimulus measures needed at the time to stop the downward spiral in US markets created a huge budged deficit. In addition,...

Killy_Mel

US housing market, measured by Housing Starts and Building Permits indicators is continuing its recovery in line with its relevant trendline. The housing market was hit the hardest during the 2008/9 financial crisis, causes by the burst of housing market bubble in the US. Thus it comes as a no surprise that the housing market is still recovering its losses, but...

Killy_Mel

Situation at industrial production in the US hints of a stalled recovery around 2008 highs, which is a risk, considering the fact that current base year for the indices was recently updated to 2012 (so there is no base effect in the index now) Total industrial production has recovered past its 2008 highs, but stalled somewhat at current levels since about a year...

Killy_Mel

Inventories to Sales Ratio has been moderately ascending recently above its relevant risk-free levels of 1.3 along the relevant trend line. It means that Inventories have been growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio...

Killy_Mel

WTI Oil continues to trade within the tightening range that we covered earlier, with recent attempt to break above it failed - price is back at the mean. Since our previous overview the range tightened down to 48.5-42, making the potential break from it even more powerful, as the longer the price sits within it, the more energy it has for a potential move away...

Killy_Mel

S&P 500 restores 5-year uptrend by breaking above the upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 2020), signaling more long term upside probability. One should also note that the August selloff did not trigger the test of the 10-year trend (price did not tag the 10-year uptrend border at 1845), meaning the upward bias is pretty strong on the index.