Kirk_Spano

Kirk_Spano

A long-term set of macro circumstances, impacted by debt, QE and geopolitics are playing out for a very big Head & Shoulders through about 2028.

Kirk_Spano

If the tariff situation gets worse, there's a lot of downside.

Kirk_Spano

Fundamentally, hard to not see AST SpaceMobile being worth $50-100 billion this decade. Currently at about $10b.

Kirk_Spano

The United States has the capacity to bailout the retirement system for Boomers and Millennials if we do not blow the "dry powder" of American Exceptionalism on pumping up the economy and markets for political and 1%er gains. America will be at peak Boomer dependence on Social Security & Medicare around 2030 and will not see a reduction of that dependence until...

Kirk_Spano

The punitive actions taking against Alibaba for Jack Ma for speaking out must be looked at through multi level thinking. Do the Commies really want to break up the company or are they just trying to make money on it? There are a couple scenarios here. The commies break up the company. There's probably legit, but weak reasons to do so. Yes, Alibaba is dominant,...

Kirk_Spano Updated 

Take a look at the trend on Chaikin Money Flow. Look back over 20+ years. Back at the end of 2015, start of 2016, the market reversed upwards. What was the catalyst? Hint: slickly in the news again now. Cheap oil stimulated a recovery that then ran into tax cuts a year later. As boomers age that causes a lot of money to come out of stocks. Not only do Boomers...

Kirk_Spano Updated 

There is an idea that a bear market is a 20% decline in the stock market. That is a simplification however, just like two negative quarters of GDP is a simplification of a recession. A Bear market begins when the general long-term upward trend of the stock market is broken. With the Coronavirus crash, we merely saw a move from near the top of the uptrend channel...

Kirk_Spano Updated 

Look at history. Since President Reagan, Republicans have been mercantilist and punish the dollar to benefit the big asset owners and exporters (of both goods and jobs). The dollar has firmed under Democrats who try to preserve the purchasing power of the broader public. If Joe Biden becomes President, expect a bottom in the dollar relatively quickly and for it to...

Kirk_Spano Updated 

Iron Mountain has a terminal core business that is losing physical document storage at the local level to local competitors with "in town" connections. The shredding business is dying quickly. The data storage that they spent mountains of money on is plagued by inadequate resources and a shit sales team. The company has a huge debt and only held on in the recent...

Kirk_Spano

hourly turning over

Kirk_Spano

The December 2018 lows were a test of the bull market. Those will likely break, because we are no longer in a bull market. We are in a bear market. The 2015-16 consolidation is a likely point for the stock market to regain some stability or if panic occurs, then a lower level will come quickly. The double tops of 2000 and 2007 are becoming more likely as the...

Kirk_Spano

In April I asked members to stock letters I run: "is Tesla About To Beat Estimates?" As it turns out, there were. Our strategy back then was to wait for TSLA to get under $200 and look for a good technical entry. We found that entry near the bottom and have rode an imperfect V shape up since then. The TSLAQ crowd looks dumber by the day. In fact, I am going to...

Kirk_Spano

$GDX is benefitting from consolidation in the gold miners space which should be expected to continue as companies continue to find ways to manage expenses while exploiting dwindling economic resources. GDX is safer and offers the same upside as $GDXJ. $GDXJ should be used for cherry picking stocks out of when you can find a company with a transformational project...

Kirk_Spano

That indicates the trading of the fund has been superior. The concept of ARKK remains solid, however, investors should know that risk emanates also from trading skill of management. As the fund grows, trading for Wood will become harder. This is a satellite fund opporunity until the fund gets "too big." What is too big? Typically when the assets under management...

Kirk_Spano

Members of Fundamental Trends recently took hedging positions using $VXX. Some own short-term VXX calls, others the VXX ETN. A very simple analysis of the VIX index shows that a target range for a rise in volatility would be about 18-25 on that index. Using simple Bollinger Bands and exponential moving average is all it takes along with a knowledge of history. Our...