Koch0617

Koch0617

No time to draw in bear Wolfe Wave numbers If yesterday's high holds then go short for a long trip down on the daily chart

Koch0617

AB=CD Target coincides with prior SNR at April 2019

Koch0617

Bear Wolfe Wave after yesterday's high and then lower close. Has perfect symmetry. Most likely it will retrace 0.786 of yesterday's bar today before proceeding down. Sell short bottom of yesterday's bar, SL at top of bar and target at TL. Excellent R:R ratio

Koch0617

Futures and pre market prices have moved outside of upper channel boundary, which is worrisome for near term shorts, but hit 0.786 retracement which usually means continues down Hopefully will close by EOD inside of channel, in which case trend should continue move down. Otherwise I will exit my long puts and simply stay with OTM call credit spreads.

Koch0617

Clorox, regardless of the hand-iwipes, is forming a nice bear flag on the hourly. If this breaks down expect target to come to EXACTLY the gap up move from mid-July 2018 ~ 40 points from here Also may reflect a H & S completion

Koch0617 Updated 

Wedge held perfectly. Went and touched the top shortly before US open. Went through bottom channel and then appears to be retesting bottom channel line. Latter best seen on candle stick chart. So expect Monday for trend to continue down Target is 2340, which coincidentally is Dec 18, 2019 low! If Market goes back up it should reverse it will meet both bear...

Koch0617

This stock pays very high dividends ~ 15%. Recently featured on Seeking Alpha Sold lots of 5 puts for May

Koch0617

Right before jobs report, SPX CFD made a perfect touch to the upside of the bear flag Notice that it is seen most clearly on close prices. Getting closer to upper level of channel from 2020 high. In a PERFECT world this flag will drift along until it hits channel and then FALL

Koch0617 Updated 

Bear flag easily seen if we switch to closing prices. Completion takes us to 242

Koch0617

Perfect WW set up occurred on the hourly bars. Point five usually retraces to 0.786 News out it bounced down directly to Target Line Great toll for scalping trades in a trending market. Essentially a bear flag as someone has already noted

Koch0617 Updated 

Purple oval represents the best places to go short, IF we get a bounce on the open. Make SL just outside of upper level of blue channel. High likelihood that 2500 will not hold. Personally, prefer IWM as its weaker index compared to others with QQQ the strongest.

Koch0617

Next target 250 points down If we look back at previous levels of SNR No confluence with Fib until it falls by nearly another 50%

Koch0617 Updated 

Based off of Fib extensions and SNR next three targets to the downside are identified. Buy long puts, but out to at least Sept and ITM or else the volatility premium will hurt. If too extensive start with 260/255 Credit spreads out 45 days and take advantage of the premium.

Koch0617 Updated 

If SPX/ES does not hold its down to 2300 or March low. NO support in between

Koch0617

SPY is clearly heading for retest of March low and then if that is not cleared it will likely find support around 170. Look at channel, Fib extensions and channel. All say the same thing. If Puts are too expensive sell 260/265 call credit spreads to take advantage of the increasing volatility. Do not put puts unless they are deep ITM and far out (i.e.,...

Koch0617

As stated yesterday, SPY found resistance at 263. Bear resumes Next target is prior low which as confluence of two Fib extensions or 227 Final and possible bottom will be at 0.786 or 1.00 extension which also is at prior support from winter 2015-2016 or around 180.

Koch0617

SPY/SPX held at 0.382 Fib as stated yesterday With all the bad fundamental data, the brisk rally we saw to 0.382 retracement level is just a a bear market rally. Quick upside moves to a prior SNR leve and/or Fib level, usually both and then a resumption of the trend. First target will be retest of lows around 220. Best estimate for bottom is 160 to 168 based...

Koch0617

With this large bear market rally notice that volume falls off daily. End of the Quarter today so expect that fund managers will unload (sell) and market will continue downward course. Expecting FIRST support at 190 which is high from 2016. OTM Call Credit Spreads 300/295 May and further out are a safe bet.