KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

EUR/USD levelled out this morning. I no longer expect it to fall to the dotted green line, but rather move sideways until it hits it. My projected price movement is shown by the curved green arrow.

KrunchieKilleen

Having spiked on Thursday last, with news that the ECB will be less aggressive than expected in its Quantitative Easing program, the Euro now comes down from the spike. If an uptrend is emerging, as I epect, then it will meet support at or before the green line and, I guess, will not fall as far as the brown line, which I drew in a previous post to show the bottom...

KrunchieKilleen

The jump in value of EUR/USD today is, surely, a spike. There is a definite break-out from the recent downtrend and this spike marks the beginning of the new uptrend. However, the slope of the uptrend is more likely to be that marked by the green trend-line I have drawn.

KrunchieKilleen

EIRL is an ETF tracking the top 99% of Irish shares. The Irish economy grew by around 6% in 2015. Its projected growth for 2014 is around 4%. This is based on an expectation that growth will slow as the economy approaches its capacity. At the end of 2015, however, it is apparent that many Irish workers who emigrated during the recent recession are returning home,...

KrunchieKilleen

USA performed better than the Euro Zone during 2015. First three quarters show a total growth of 2.1% as against 1/6% in the Euro Zone. USA contemplates raising interest rates (very gradually I expect) and paying of debt in 2016, while Euro Zone intends to continue zero interest and QE. Do these differences justify the fall of 25% in value of the Euro against the...

KrunchieKilleen

The curve I drew in my last post holds. The Euro decline appears to be bottoming out. On Wed 3 Dec 15 both the Fed and the ECB will show their hands. Fed may emphasise the gradual nature of coming rate increases and ECB may lighten up on its Quantitative Easing program. Many punters, however, still expect parity before year end, pressing EUR/USD down. Perhaps 1.00...

KrunchieKilleen

Nasdaq (blue) is more erratic than Dow Industrials (orange). There is scope for a correction in both as interest rates go up.

KrunchieKilleen

Having risen for 6 months from Mar, the Euro took a drop in October (when I went on holiday and) on news that US interest rates are to rise before year end, while Europe would continue its low rate policy. News that Great Britain may commit Euricide probably had no effect, since Sterling continues strong, Brexit is a long way off, and its exit would be slow and...

KrunchieKilleen

Hitting resistance, EUR/USD swings down again. Re-open a long position c. $1.12?

KrunchieKilleen

Lifting off from Support Line C, I think we will see a little surge now breaking through Resistance Line D

KrunchieKilleen

Trending upwards between Support Line B and Resistance Line A, for the moment EUR/USD swings between trend lines C and D. Buy at $1;.1168 and exit at $1.1297, but watch for break-out of the temporary range;.

KrunchieKilleen

Most commentators continue to expect the Euro to decline against the Dollar -and still predict parity before year end. I, however, believe what I see. I see my country, Ireland's, exports booming and tourists pouring in, partly because the low Euro makes our prices appear very low to those with Sterling or Dollars. In other words, Euro is undervalued and must...

KrunchieKilleen

EUR/USD dipped out of the channel I painted. However, it has rebounded and the trend continues upwards, maybe more gently than I had predicted.

KrunchieKilleen

NASDAQ could repeat the pattern of the dotcom correction of 2000, (blue triangles). Upswings will occur, but the trend could continue downwards throughout 2016 and into 2017, until the long-term Support Line is reached.

KrunchieKilleen

The channel is defined. Next stop 4200.

KrunchieKilleen

We don't know why the FTSE (blue graph) is falling, except its sympathy with American indexes. The neighbouring island's index (represented here by the blue graph, an ETF of Irish shares) steams ahead, indicative of the export-led economic growth. The dragon (double curve) has a long tail: we don't know where the bottom is: probably soon, but not exactly yet.

KrunchieKilleen

The upswing of the Dow after the Great Fall of China has ended (for now) and the downtrend is becoming more defined. Resistance Line A recedes into history. Resistance Line C looks solid, but there could still be a moderation of the downtrend via an upswing bringing us back to Resistance Line B.

KrunchieKilleen

The trend of NASDAQ will continue downwards for a few more months. There is a definite channel, but the Great Fall of China dived out of the channel. At present we are hitting the bottom of the channel, but, rather than another dive, a upswing is quite possible.