The Euro has been trending gently upwards against the US Dollar since the Ides of March 2015. Now the upslope has accelerated a bit. Next peak around $1.18.
The Rolls Royce share is at a cross roads. The world's leading airplane-engine manufacturer, it has losing lines in other areas, such as marine and motor engines. It has fallen by 22% since 27 Apr. Has it now reached a bottom? It must in the coming days break through either the Support Line or the Resistance Line. Long term a very solid investment, I guess it is...
The trend is upwards, but not quite out of the trees till it crashes through Resistance Line D, at around $1.14. The yellow box shows its normal zone.
Morgan Stanley "Full House" buy alert may have sparked today's Dow jump. In the long term, share prices look promising, but first the market correction has to complete. Today's peak suggests a new Resistance Line emerging, as the Dow continues is downtrend for the next few months.
The monthly ECB meeting today, showing European growth practically non-existent, inflation flat and money-supply increasing, threw a bucket of cold water on the Euro. Result a plunge, and I exit my position with egg on face. Will it continue to plunge or level out? Who knows?
The trend will undoubtedly be down for the next few months, even if the imminence of FED rate rise is pushed back. However, there is scope for partial recovery from the Chinese dip.
So far, I am justified in getting in early in my long position, as the upswing started without hitting the Support Line. Next peak will be around $1.175.
It will probably fall a little more, but I am taking a punt on EUR/USD swinging from its present level to c. 1.16 in the next few days or week.
The Blue trend line shows the Downslope up to 19 Aug 2015. The Purple Box shows an emerging Down-channel. The Yellow Box shows the area of influence of the Great Fall of China. The Orange trend line shows the current upslope. The Green trend line shows the median value of DIA (DOW ETF) over its history. The overall environment suggests an ultimate softening of...
My prediction of yesterday was incorrect. NASDAQ (and DOW) rose to break through the blue Downtrend Resistance Line. The new Channel that emerges faces upwards. Early morning sees European markets opening higher, but Bull-Bear tug-of-war very active. Who dominates will be a clue as to whether NASDAQ is at a peak. I would not bet on it rising higher, but expect a...
The Amber Lines and Notes on the Chart are continued from the previous post. The Blue Lines and Notes are added. There is an element of uncertainty until the graph crashes through either Line D or Line E. On balance, it looks likely that the Downtrend will continue and Line E will hold.
Line A is the long-term Support Line that has held since 2013. Line B indicates an emerging down-trend (in anticipation of coming interest-rate hikes, I suppose). The bounce-back from the Chinese Fall has crashed through this emerging Resistance Line, but I expect the down-trend to re-assert itself, with probability that this Resistance Line will be re-instated.
After its bounce back from the Chinese Fall, the Dow continues its downtrend and tries to define a Channel in which to move.
Well, that seems to be all the bounce it has got. We re-draw the Support Line, indicating a steeper downtrend.
Every country wants to devalue, so the ECB's long lead in the devalue stakes has come to a halt. When the Euro comes down from its current peak, it will rise to its next peak somewhere around the same. The trend continues upwards.
If NASDAQ is to be true to its history, now that it has started to plunge, it has a long way to fall.
Support Line A was breached on 25 May, indicating the beginning of a downtrend. Support Line B of the downtrend is now severely breached. Unless we are to see a market crash (for which there is really no reason), today's plunge should be compensated by a upwards surge. That is in the nature of spikes.
The present pattern suggests an upswing from here possibly as far as 173.50 (DIA price), followed by a downswing to c. 171, as the DOW continues is downtrend fuelled by prospect of Interest rise in the New Year. Final tentative target of the Downtrend is represented by the Green Line, in Jan or Feb 2016, at around 155.