KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

If the DOW is in a downtrend, why not the NASDAQ? I see the NASDAQ 100 swinging up for a bit (possibly to 4500), before continuing its nascent downtrend. Not as definite a downtrend as the DOW, but are not all the American markets to react the same to the prospect of interest rates rising?

KrunchieKilleen

Tomorrow, Wed 19 Aug, the US Central Bank will give a hint as to whether interest rates will rise in Sep. Most likely not - saving the markets from severe plunge. The curves on the chart show scope for the downtrend to slow down for a while.

KrunchieKilleen

The long term chart shows the EUR/USD at the bottom of its natural zone, and rising from this bottom. Downward pressures are the prospect of a rise in American interest rates and commencement of Quantitative Tightening in the US, as against continuing ZIRP and QE in Europe. A week ago it seemed that these pressures had stopped the resurgence, but China stepped in...

KrunchieKilleen

Whatever the immediate stimulus (Chinese exchange rate cut?), the DOW downtrend has strengthened. We are now in for a deep correction. My chart shows DIA (DOW INDUSTRIALS ETF) continuing to fall from its present $172 to c. $145.

KrunchieKilleen

The Dow is on a downward trend. Having swung to a top yesterday, it will plunge down to a bottom today. Short DIA (Down Industrials ETF) at current market price (c. $176) and take profit at $173.

KrunchieKilleen

Monetary outflows from Europe continue according to Deutsche Bank. US interest rates are to rise later this year. QE, if the funds are not re-invested, will convert into Quantitative Tightening. The US Dollar will strengthen again against all comers except, perhaps, GBP and NZD. While the trend of the Euro against the Dollar has been slowly upwards since early...

KrunchieKilleen

The downswing in DIA (DOW etf) will continue to around 174, then swing back to c. 180.

KrunchieKilleen

The Euro is at the bottom of its normal range. It seems to be undervalued relative to the US Dollar and should rise from here. However, the expectation that US interest rates are to increase while ZIRP and QE continue to apply in the Eurozone puts pressure on the Euro to sink rather than rise. The fact that US interest rate rise is not now expected until December...

KrunchieKilleen

I guess that yesterday's downswing (which saw a slight recovery at day's end) will resume today, but, if not now, later.

KrunchieKilleen

Though higher than I expected, yesterday's peak failed to rise above the previous peak on 18 Jun, confirming that the downtrend continues. Now for a downswing of over 3%!

KrunchieKilleen

Slow to get started, the trend is nevertheless upwards. Following previous patterns should see target of $1.16 reached in one month.

KrunchieKilleen

Quite a surge in share prices this weekend (Thursday 9 Jul to today, Monday 13), giving mixed signals. My guess is that the present upswing ends right where it is at now. This peak is unlikely to exceed the last peak on 18 Jun, but meet resistance at either the curved lines or straight Resistance Line R1.

KrunchieKilleen

Swinging down at the moment, the breaking news from Brussels of an Agreement between EU leaders on Greece will see this downswing aborted and the Euro zoom upwards. The purple rectangle on the chart tentatively shows the shape of the emerging upwards channel. The 30-day MA (720 hour) begins to turn upwards. The US Dollar is certainly too expensive as far as trade...

KrunchieKilleen

The Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar is over. The trend is now upwards. A down-swing, however, is to be anticipated at present.

KrunchieKilleen

The trend of DIA (Dow Ind Av ETF) is downwards, but there is scope for a swing back towards the 30 Day Moving Average.

KrunchieKilleen

As Greece works towards an accommodation with Europe, the effect of the crisis on EUR/USD is lessening. The bottom is taking on a parabola shape, as is the top. Will the EUR/USD stabilise at a value within the flattened bottom of the parabola, or will it start to rise? This depends on the market's belief in an American interest rate rise. Recent FED statements...

KrunchieKilleen

If share prices continue to fall over the next week (in expectation of an Autumn rise in interest rates), DIA (ETF based on DOW Industrial Average) is likely to fall as far as Support Line S1.

KrunchieKilleen

Perhaps the Euro has fallen far enough against the US Dollar. Leaving out the Down-spike of 26 June (Euro sell-off on Asian markets), the Support Line S1 is tending to converge with Resistance Line R1. The Parabolic S line may be a better indicator of the Support Level. The price, moreover, has moved far enough away from the Moving Average to warrant a move back.