KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

The acceleration in the Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar is indicated by Resistance Line R1. I attempt to project the Moving Average (30 Day) forward. The price will stay below the MA for the present. Our target is $1.06 by mid August. Next week's upswing, when it is clear that Greece is remaining in the Euro-zone, may cause a breach of line R1, but the...

KrunchieKilleen

Support Line S has been breached and Resistance Line R has bent downwards. We can say that EUR/USD is trending downwards. Greece will not be allowed to leave the Euro. Real negotiations about the Greek economy will now commence. There will be a write-down or long extension of Greek debt and, eventually, resources will be directed towards stimulating (rather than...

KrunchieKilleen

Chart shows a vertical line at or around 1 Jul of every year since 1998 (DIA: Dow Industrial Average ETF). More often than not, the Dow falls around this time of the year (unless it has already fallen in the last two months). The faster it has risen in the previous period, the harder the fall tends to be. This year the July fall is likely to be the start of a...

KrunchieKilleen

Swinging now between S and R, with break-out of one or other (I guess S) by 14 July.

KrunchieKilleen

Even if not as early as September, American interest rates will rise fairly soon anyway, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD, and the market knows it. Resistance is flattening and the price may be contained below $1.14. IMF and Eurozone support for the Greek economy will continue along its thorny ride for several more years. Resolution of the current crisis will...

KrunchieKilleen

Early in March 2015, I predicted an uptrend of the Euro against the US Dollar, on the basis that the Dollar had risen too high. I sketched a rebound of EUR/USD potentially symmetrical to its previous downtrend (blue triangle). I offered the opinion that the Greek crisis would not prevent the rise of EUR/USD, because it was not about the Euro, but about the Dollar....

KrunchieKilleen

Promise of an early rise in USA interests rate is likely to confirm that the upwards movement of the Euro against the US Dollar is coming to an end and EUR/USD now commencing a downtrend.

KrunchieKilleen

Optimism about Greece seems to have pushed the Euro upwards against the US Dollar. The current trend is upwards. It is now due a downswing. Will the upward trend be sustained? I doubt it. The Dollar zone is promising an imminent rise in interest rate, maybe as soon as September, while the Euro zone is only beginning its ZIRP and QE. The pressure has to be for...

KrunchieKilleen

The Normal Zone for EUR/USD lies between $1.1 and $1.4. In normal course, I would expect the Euro to rebound from its present level of c. $1.1, and swing around its mid-point of $1.25. The main pressure for it to continue its downtrend is the imminent increase in USA interest rates, while the European Central Bank clings to Zero Interest Rate Policy. Toss the ...

KrunchieKilleen

The uptrend of the Euro against the US Dollar seems to have aborted, and the Euro plunges towards parity with the Dollar. Causes for the change: Great Britain prepares contingency plans for leaving the EU (so what? Just the effects this story has on sentiment); The Greek government announces its intention to default on IMF payments (hardly unexpected); European...

KrunchieKilleen

On 1 Apr 2015, I dared to predict that the downtrend of the Euro against the US Dollar was at an end and that an uptrend would now start. I drew a blue triangle tentatively predicting an uptrend symmetrical to the finished downtrend. This was modified in my post of 16 Apr. Four days ago, I noted that the uptrend had become too steep and that there was plenty of...

KrunchieKilleen

Line B is parallel to previous up-slope A. The present upslope is much steeper. While the 30-month Moving Average suggests that there is a long way to go before the up-slope needs to be corrected by a significant down-swing, the scope for down-swings is significant. A downswing could be triggered by a political event, such as Greek default.

KrunchieKilleen

The Chart shows the price movement of EUR/USD since 1993 and the 30 month Moving Average. The upward march of the Euro has a long way to go to cross the Moving Average. It should continue through the Moving Average, to peak around $1.3 in 2017.

KrunchieKilleen

On 1 Apr 2015, I drew a blue triangle on the graph of the EUR/USD, predicting that the downtrend would end and guessing the shape of the coming uptrend (i.e., to mirror the retired downtrend). A week later I predicted that the graph would bounce off Line A, but, days later, had to amend my guess that it would bounce, instead off Line C. Then, I had to move my blue...

KrunchieKilleen

The Euro is definitely trending upwards against the US Dollar, even though there is plenty of room for downswings. The Greek crisis is of little importance, given that Greek GDP is a mere $0.23 T, compared to Germany $3.9 T, the EU $18.5 T and USA $17.4 T (2014 figures). My previous projected map of the upswing is still valid.

KrunchieKilleen

In my last post, I predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off Line C in my chart. This has now happened. The double bounce off Line C is strong evidence that the uptrend is now under way. I move the blue triangle of my previous post to the right to renew my guess of the slope of the uptrend..

KrunchieKilleen

On first sight, it appears that EUR/USD has decided to continue its downward trend, continuing Option B as its Resistance Line. The fundamentals indicate otherwise, however. US interest rates are not to rise this year (according to the FED on Wednesday last); US trade is suffering from the high value of the Dollar; EU economies are picking up, while the US...

KrunchieKilleen

EUR/USD is at a watershed. Will it break through Support Line A (indicating that the year-long downtrend will continue), or Resistance Line B (indicating that an uptrend, tentatively heralded by me in my last few posts is truly under way)? I guess the latter!