KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

The Euro is approaching the top of its current uptrend against the Dollar. The turning point will come when the market begins to anticipate an increase in American interest rates, while the Euro zone holds rates down.

KrunchieKilleen

Chart shows ETFs based on S&P, DOW and NASDAQ. All have reached an unsustainable peak, from which a fall in the order of 20% is likely.

KrunchieKilleen

Having paused, the Euro is set to resume its rise against the US Dollar, powered by strong European economy. $1.25 would be a target; then review what might happen next.

KrunchieKilleen

It looks like long expected market downtrend has begun.

KrunchieKilleen

If the markets move in seven year cycles, then there are two ways of looking at the present manifestation. First, the Bubble of 2014 was not sufficiently burst, and a collapse is imminent. Second, there was a sufficient correction in 2014, and we will continue in a Bull Market until 2021. It is likely that world-wide policies of Quantitative Easing and Low...

KrunchieKilleen

February 2017, I made a premature prediction of a tumble in share prices (Line A). It looks like the tumble is about to happen at last (Line B) . We are probably seeing the beginning of a Bear Market to take us into 2018.

KrunchieKilleen

Motor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inacessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at krunchiescab.blogspot.ie The Motor Industry will...

KrunchieKilleen

It looks like Ali Baba has peaked for now. Time to take profit.

KrunchieKilleen

With a P/E that is still over 21, even though it may rally from its present low, it looks inevitable that CRH, like American shares in general, will continue to fall for a considerable time. A substantial rise in earnings is necessary to maintain current price levels. European shares trade at a P/E of around 14 and American shares must correct to similar levels. I...

KrunchieKilleen

Bouncing off Resistance Line R today seems to indicate a downswing. I guess we will see a movement somewhat along the track described by the green arrow. Looking back next month, we will say that the downtrend began on the 1st of March.

KrunchieKilleen Updated 

The upswing appears to be petering out. Monday's market should show if the next downswing is starting.

KrunchieKilleen

Pulling out of its recent down-swing, we watch to see if the index will be constrained by our speculative Resistance Line (purple), or if it will crash through this line to resume the up-trend. The up-trend has already proceeded beyond reason, and I won't be taking a long position. Should it bounce off the purple line, however, I am ready to resume a short.

KrunchieKilleen Updated 

I think the downchannel of the SVP is emerging, and I have replaced my previous "Indicative Resistance Line" (green) with my new "Emerging Resistance Line" (blue). Time, then, not for exiting the short, but for strengthening it!

KrunchieKilleen

S&P 500 and DOW 100 reached a peak on 1 Mar 2017, ending a charge that ommenced last November. The trend-line, "Long-term down-slope," indicates the possible top of the down-slope of the potentially-emerging Bear Market. If so, there will be upswings and downswings within this down-trend. The "Indicative Resistance LIne" indicates a possible marker (Resistance...

KrunchieKilleen

The Dow, (here echoed in the DIA ETF on the DOW 100 shown green), quickly followed the S&P, (here echoed in the SPV ETF on the S&P 500, shown blue), and then the NASDAQ (here echoed in the QQQ ETF on the NASDAQ, shown blue), joined in the dip. It is too soon to say if this is the beginning of a downtrend, but why not, since the indexes are overvalued?

KrunchieKilleen

I am betting that the Social & Poor index will take a bit of a tumble. While it will probably sink over the next three years right down to $160, my initial bet is to the 5-year Support Line, exiting the bet at $224.

KrunchieKilleen

Having fallen a little over the last 5 days, should we expect CRH to recover? Not at all! With a P/E of c. 27, the stock is over-priced. Even with a continuation of profit growth at almost 8%, a significant fall must be anticipated. I would say: sell now and buy later after the price tumbles to around £22 (LSE price).

KrunchieKilleen

S&P 500 to crash from 2277 to 1600, or even 1300? It may seem unbelievable, but this would be a drop in P/E from the excessively high level of 25.5 down to its median level of 14.65. Trump's economic policy, negatie on trade, is likely to see a contraction in GDP rather than a rise. Tomorrow is the first of February, so we can expect to see prices falling now...