Kumowizard

Kumowizard

Daily TF: - Neutral Ichimoku setup with slight bearish bias ahead - Heikin-Ashi is in a sell signal, confirmation needed with a close below 11.68 Weekly TF: - Neutral Ichimoku, after meaningful lower highs printed since July 2024. Thinner forward cloud and flattening 100 weeks WMA shows long term volatility has been decreasing and downtrend in EWO/AO indicator...

Kumowizard

By the weekly chart setup 2,25 - 2,40 % yield zone is clearly a good RR to bet for bearish yields and accumulate longs in 5 year Bobl through FGBMH4 futures.

Kumowizard

I started to believe that as yield trends are changing globally, and yields will likely be lower in 2024, while I expect USD to trade rather a little weaker, this all should help Emerging Market Stocks to reverse and start to show a better relative performance against SPX and DAX. Key technical levels to watch are 40.20 and 42. A close above 40.20 would...

Kumowizard

It is very obvious from a simple trendfollowing model. the only thing you have to do is buying more on any pull back to support, then just sit tight and wait until trend accelerates towards the previous highs.

Kumowizard

- WTI has been trading sideaways in a wider bearish consolidation range of 72.50 - 81.50. - Weekly Ichimoku setup is bearish, with strong support at 81.90 (Kijun Sen) - It seems to be building a bearish flag, which if breaks, then space would open to 66 and 50.50 Any spikes to/above 80 is an opportunity to get some bearish exposure. I know there's a China...

Kumowizard

Daily time frame has a bearish bias Weekly time frame: Neutral to bearish bias. Watch spot and forward looking MONTHLY Kijun lines (dark blue and light blue) at 81,50 - 84,50! Should this range break on the downside, a massive bear market will start on Oil, which will likely put pressure on the whole commodity market. For now use all spikes to buy longer...

Kumowizard

Market is overshooting on better than expected US CPI. A week ago media was loud of a looming recession. In fact recession will happen, that's the only way global inflation can come lower somehow. Leave macro for now, just look at the strategic technical picture: - Price is reaching weekly cloud and 100 weeks WMA. - Momentum indicators are all stretched - Move...

Kumowizard

It is simply a very bad risk/reward to be long of tech index at this level. Look at the weekly. It looks even worse than SPX. The Monthly Kijun (especially the forward looking) is a hard resistance for this market. Weekly Kijun is well below Monthly Kijun. Will there be rate cuts in the US? No. Even if rates market priced in the whole tightening cycle, I am...

Kumowizard

Daily: - Some early sign of a possible momentum loss at key resistance (4140 - 4200) - Watch haDelta+ and haOscillator Weekly: - EWO is still deep red (bearish) - haDelta+ and haOscillator indicators are reaching their range tops, buyers may lose control within 1-3 weeks - VERY IMPORTANT to see the forward looking Monthly Kijun sen (26 Months average calculated...

Kumowizard

Daily: For now it seems like momentum is reversing from a higher low. If ECB announces something credible, it may trade up to 1,0570-1,07 zone again Weekly: Absolute key level is 1,0370. Overall setup is still far from a possible trend reversal, there will be a lot of work to do until it happes: 100WMA and weekly Kijun has to come down more to get closer to...

Kumowizard

Generally speaking it is a very bad risk/reward to be long at these levels in European stocks. Dax has shown some relative strength compared to US markets, but that can be simply due to the fact EURUSD got smacked to quite a low level,which may have resulted in some relative value trades and flows out from USA into Europe. Simply put, in USD terms European stocks...

Kumowizard

Everything is written in the chart. It is quite simple... unless it shows only a minor and weak consolidation, refusing to trade much higher above 4100-4150. Then it would collapse straight down. Anyway, it is also time to focus on EUR rates too. Next hit will come from ECB in form of rate hikes and liquidity withrawal.

Kumowizard

Maybe yes, maybe not. It all depends on how ECB will react. reading them and the EUR bond curve price action suggest to me that they are about to finally give up their insane policy and go for some kind of normalization and tightenning soon. That would close the gap between blowing US yields and lagging EUR yields. I don't say a major trend reversal is imminent...

Kumowizard

Obviously I have a very detailed view about why/how the US economy will shrink, how certain macro inputs will influence companies profit margins, sales, etc. and the overall market expectations on earnings. I also have a view about rates, bond curve and general liquidity, which will all have a serious further impact on the general multiplier in terms of SPX500...

Kumowizard

Daily: - Ichimoku setup is neautral, with some bullish bias. Price attempts a bullish cloud breakout, which in case of a success would mean a break of the long term bearish trendline too. - HA price action and indicators are positive - EWO is picking up Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish. Price trades above weekly Kijun (26 weeks...

Kumowizard

Spot weekly Kijun Sen is at 48900, but in 4 weeks time it is going to increase to 51200. Daily Kijun is also pushing price from above, currently at 52000. This 51200-52000 is becoming the first resistance zone. 100 day WMA has strarted to point down. The forward Kumo has a clear bearish indication too. A close below 47000 would lead to an acceleration in...

Kumowizard

Gold finally delivers a major breakout. Enter/increase longs, buy any dip. No more comment.

Kumowizard

US 5y yield is up appr. 8 bps today to 1.16 %. US 2y is moving at same pace. Yet, this odd German 5y Yield is still stuck at - 57 bps??? How long will it take until market starts testing ECB? How long can the European Central Bank communicqate the "transitory" BS narrative? How long until everybody realises that inflation is not only a US phenomenon, but a...