Kumowizard

Kumowizard

Looks like some kind of base, but we need a bullish breakout and price action to confirm the idea. For now price is still in the thin Kumo, but holding nicely above Kijun Sen. It is very simple: it needs a break and close above 24.45, where we have the very important weekly Kijun Sen too. Set an alert there.

Kumowizard

Oh please.... 2y Note at 0,42 % .... I understand there might be a short term short squeeze which pushes the yield down to this level, all we have to do is use the move to start building outright short positions again.

Kumowizard

The US bond curve has retraced to an optimal sell zone of 111-115 bps. We have an obvious bearish signal in the cloud ahead. Next leg down may reach 90 bps, and later possible to 71-79 ultimate target range. For those who really put this on: Fixed Income Hedge Ratio for $ZN and $ZT contracts spread is 1:2. So you need to buy 1 ZN and sell 2 ZT against it to...

Kumowizard

Short term it seems a good risk/reward to buy in the 1013-1024 support zone. Momentum seems to be reversing too. For a longer term trend trade in bigger size it must close above 1047.

Kumowizard

To be honest, I have no clue why the High Yield and Junk bonds are performing so well, especially given the fact more than 80 % of these bonds are trading at a negative real yield. Probably there's still too much liquidity in the market, or as it often happens, portfolio managers just keep ignoring all risks, and happy to pick up every penny to make slightly...

Kumowizard

Higher high, bullish cloud breakout on daily, bullish momentum indication on weekly and daily. I highly recommend you to zoom out the weekly time frame, as space is clearly opened to 24-25 target zone. DBC is going to be the relatively strongest and best performing asset class for months ahead. It is also the best hedge against a cost inflation pressure and for...

Kumowizard

Italian 10y vs German 10y yield spread is also back to support. Besides the outright initial short, I sell some BTP against Bund too.

Kumowizard

Please note, that this ia a yield chart, which means an upward move in yields is bearish in terms of BTP futures. After reaching our initial bearish target, BTP yield retraced to daily Kijun Sen and is trading now at a very good risk/reward support zone, where we start to re-establish short bond positions to a 1,35-1,40 % target. We will put on larger size in...

Kumowizard

What you can't see just yet on a spot Ichimoku chart, you can confirm on these charts where I added slightly modified Kijun Sen lines. Left panel (daily): - Kijun Sen (26 days avg) 4 days from now will move above spot price to 123,41. -> first resistance - I added weekly Kijun, which you see just ticked up to 119,55, but more importantly we already know that the...

Kumowizard

Ichimoku setup is neutral, with some bullish bias in EWO and Heikin-Ashi indicators. Earnings will be out two days from now. As price is pretty close to Kumo and downtrend line, set your alerts and don't hesitate to enter long if it breaks out. By the way, this stock has an excellent Dividend Yield, and they do serious steps to turn it more into a green energy company.

Kumowizard

Mr. Market seems to question the ECB. US yields are going higher again, and USD curve gets steeper every day. European long end bonds will sell off too. Both Bund and BTP yield will likely trade much higher and EUR curves will get steeper.

Kumowizard

EWO - lower high haDelta+ and haOscillator at top and cross down A local top is possible. It's too early to say if it's going to be a double top.

Kumowizard

For the non FI experts: I put this post out as a SHORT Investment strategy, which means sell the 10y Italian bond (BTP) futures. Only in terms of yield charts it is a bullish picture as yields rise when bonds are sold. Left panel: weekly chart of BTP/Bund (Italy 10y over German 10y bond) yield spread Right panel: BTP Italy 10y yield The yield already delivered...

Kumowizard

SPX vs Russell2000 spread monthly chart. We all know why technically Russell2000 has overperformed SP500 so much since October. The question is can it be justified fundamentally in a rising rates environment, especially in times when credit spreads may start to widen too?

Kumowizard

Consolidation seems to be over. Breakout with a higher high,stock can likely start a new bullish leg.

Kumowizard

Uh, oh.... so close. Get ready! "Long" call here means we expect higher yields after a breakout --> that translates into SELL the Bund!

Kumowizard

There are multiple bullish indication on the daily chart --> all marked with ellipses We start to accumulate some of this stock. If a bullish breakout confirms, we will size up position. Depending on the entry, potential RR is 1:4

Kumowizard

Nasdaq100 has had an extreme overperformance relative to the broad market and all other sectors through many years. This trend may continue for the long run, but for now it has reached extremes and we have a few warning signals on the charts: Weekly: - We have seen a positive momentum divergence developing for weeks (reflecting in haDelta+, haOscillator and...