Kupitman

Kupitman

Flat correction seems complete by now. Wave 3 is about to start. CAD usually strongly correlated with oil market, therefore I am expecting oil to start melting down now.

Kupitman

It seems 10-15% sell off is coming, you can completion of wave formations on Amazon, Google, Tesla, Fedex charts ... everywhere.

Kupitman

10-15% correction on major US indices is coming, but for Tesla it will be closer to 30%.

Kupitman Updated 

Could be that Amazon is heading towards the upper of yellow and red channels with target between 5,000 and 6,000. Flat correction started in Sep,20 seems perfectly (with 5 waves) completed on 5th of March. If my (linked) forecast of Dow is correct, the pace of price rise in the stock market is increasing therefore I am expecting this time Amazon stock price to...

Kupitman

As per attached big picture deflationary scenario I am expecting gold and silver to turn into long term down trend at one day, but not now yet. Possibly we are in an intermediate (yellow) wave 4 now, with target around $19-$21 level. 27.80 is the level of 61% correction of the diagonal formed between Feb 1 and March 31, so it is could be a good level to initiate...

Kupitman

Down-trend on TLT is about to resume with a target around 122, so I am excepting long side of a yield curve to go event further up and eventually exceed 3%. I like Lacy Hunt's arguments for deflation/not inflation in the long term. But as he also mentioned, it is a norm at the moment to expect a short term inflation pressure. I believe a 5 wave structure is...

Kupitman Updated 

The chart would looks perfect if it could reach 68,000 level, but anyway it seems like heading towards the lower line of the channel, i.e. ~35,000 level at least.

Kupitman

Russel 2000 does not demonstrate strength yet, and the most probably scenario - it to go towards 2,000 level first before the uptrend resumption. That will be a perfect level to buy in with target around 3,000 which is the upper line of multi year channel. If the wave count is correct, then we are in the 4th wave, which should be a zig-zag, as per rule of...

Kupitman

While DOW looks exploring already, Russel 2000 and other super risky asset stocks (like Tesla) seems lagging from AAA category. It seems one more wave up is missing. Blue wave 2 formed a sharp zig-zag, so following a rule of alternation, the wave 4 should be time-consuming relatively not deep correction, so either flat of triangle, but neither has been formed...

Kupitman

The correction is over, the up-trend towards the upper line of flat correction started in 2017 is resumed, the targets are 1.27-1.29.

Kupitman

Big picture - we are in the final wave 5 of wave C of a flat correction started in 2017. The target is 87-88 level, once reached USD bull trend will resume, see linked big picture analysis done many months ago. My target on expecting EUR/USD pair is ~1.27. On March 31st, the price was rejected by the upper line of the down-trend channel and rushed down. We are...

Kupitman

I believe that oil is building a zigzag after is bottomed on April 23, 2020. It seems to me it has already formed the first 3 waves as part of the second leg of the zigzag. The length of wave 3 was just about 1.2 of wave 1, therefore the wave 5 may be extended one. But I have a secondary, alternative wave count where wave 3 is very close to 1.6 of wave 1,...

Kupitman

It seems weekly (blue) channel is regarded and the price is pushed away from its low bound, towards the upper line. If the wave count is right we are in 3-rd of 3-rd wave, i.e. the most powerful wave. That's could be the reason the market is ignoring all bad news and risks. The choppy move from July 2020 made a lot of people to believe it is the end (me...

Kupitman

On the chart we see nice 5 wave move down from 2011 till 2016 followed by 61% running flat correction topped in Aug this year. This probably can give us some clue on whether the following Gold price fall is a short term correction or a beginning of a long term down trend. I would bet the latter.

Kupitman

DXY is sitting right on a trend line which began in 2011. Also it is at the bottom line of the correction channel on hourly chart. It is quite good moment for the instrument to turn around. DXY does not show willingness to go down easily, we see multiple strong rejections from the support line. The behavior reminds situation in Mar'13, Apr'18 when new multi-month...

Kupitman

Flat formation started in 2016 seems completed. I would expect reversal very very soon.

Kupitman Updated 

As per DXY big picture downtrend started in March in not yet over, it may go all the way to 85 (61% correction level), at least 88. My major hypothesis is that wave III is incomplete yet, and I am expecting DXY to resume its move down towards 90. One of the reasons is absence of RSI divergence, but also the fact that trendlines on AUD/USD, Gold and other...

Kupitman

Alternative to my main hypothesis is that wave III is complete and we should expect rout towards at least 95 level before resumption of the down-trend.