Kupitman

Kupitman

Hypothesis #1 go Long for short/medium term I have two major hypothesis: 1. Downtrend commenced in October has already formed all 5 waves of the first big weekly scale wave 2. Only waves 1,2 and 3 have been completed and wave 4 is forming at the moment This post is all about hypo #1. 1. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are of almost the same length. 2. End of wave 5 landed on...

Kupitman

1. Daily level: The price is in wave V of the uptrend took start in Jun17 Wave IV retraced ~38% of wave III and was completed in mid Mar18. Appearance of motive waves (5 sub-wave structure) from mid Mar18 let me to assume the correction is over. 2. 4h level: Waves (a)-(b)-(c) formed the higher level wave IV have corrective structure. (a) -...

Kupitman

1. Dispute the wave count of the upward move started in Jan16 whether it is A-B-C correction with A and B waves completed or an early stage of a new bull trend with waves 1 and 2 completed we should expect a pretty big wave upward which most likely will have 5 sub-wave structure (wave C of a zigzag or wave 3 of 1-5 motive wave). 2. Huge tension accumulated during...

Kupitman

1. The chart show us clearly two motive waves down taken place between 2015 and 2016 and a corrective wave 4 reaching the pivot point of wave 1, but hesitating to close a week in the price range of wave 1. 2. Several weeks prices failing to close above 1.8350 level, seems to be a ceiling. 3. Tree humps divergence on MACD confirms the upward move is out of...

Kupitman

1. Upward move started in 2016 is loosing steam. 0.81 seems to be a ceiling. New high in Jan18 hardly exceeded the previous in Sep17. 2. That wave has a corrective structure with a lot of overlaps and significant difference from the previous motive waves downward started in mid 2013. 3. Clearly the next significant move down is coming and possibly happen very...

Kupitman

It seems DXY reached a pivot point and is turning around. Other charts confirm the idea. EUR/USD is around it weekly scale downtrend line. AUD/USD seems handing over the edge of cliff (possibly ~30% move down). Something BIG is coming.

Kupitman

Weekly time-frame chart of GBP/AUD demonstrates the following: 1. Previous upward move 1.45 - 2.20 has a three wave structure, i.e. a corrective by nature 2. Downward move from 2.20 top has an obvious motive wave characteristics with waves 1, 2 and 3 completed and 3. It seems the expanded triangle of the wave 4 is completed as well by this time 4. MACD...

Kupitman

1. Sugar seems to be completing 4th wave of the down move. 2. 4th wave has (slightly running) flat structure. 3. It looks on the chart and in particular on MACD that last 4-5 weeks it is incapable to move significantly up from the bottom of the range. It seems ready to break down. 4. Previous month volume spike on big red candle also supports the idea of selling...

Kupitman

5th wave in daily time-frame is unwinding. Waves 1 and 2 seems to be completed, so now we are in wave 3.

Kupitman

Seems the 4th wave has been completed and the 5th wave is unwinding at the moment with a target level around $72 (more precisely can be determined later)

Kupitman

Oil seems to be in 3rd (1h chart) of a 3rd (4h chart) of the 5th (1d chart) upward motive wave, i.e. it is an opportunity to join a nice ride till about $68 with relatively small pullback expected at about $66.50. Previous wave count with bear outlook for oil and stocks was invalidated and abandoned. BTW snce Oil has high correlation with dollar index,...

Kupitman

WTI looks ready for the move down to form wave 5 of the first leg in bigger time-frame down trend with target below $20. I was expecting the correction to last till $62.90 - $63, but it does not look like capable.

Kupitman

1. EUR seems to be in wave 4 of the uptrend started in Nov 2017. 2. Wave 4 seems to be forming an extended flat structure started on 23 Jan with waves A and B completed and unfolding wave C. 3. Wave C should have 5 waves structure with target at least 1.2220, but since wave B went above the top of wave 5 the correction can be deeper, to the level of wave...

Kupitman

1. EUR/USD is correcting after steep leg upward with extended wave 5, i.e. the correction can be deep. 2. The first wave of correction (A) has 5 waves structure. 3. Wave A seems to be completed and stands right in front of a support line. 4. Since wave A has a 5 waves structure, most likely it is the first wave of zigzag correction pattern. Therefore we should...

Kupitman

Received a book "High Probability Commodity Trading" last week, just on time. It is amazing how current oil market matches multiple criteria of a pivot point. See weekly chart: 1. RSI ("go-to" signal as per the author) is in extreme zone confirmed by 2. Williams %R in extreme zone too also by 3. Slow Stochastic 4. MACD on daily chart 5. What is more important net...

Kupitman

In case WTI dives under $56 resistance most likely it will head to $54 lever to clear that massive support.