KyleBaran

KyleBaran Updated 

When a currency breaks outside the channel and then changes color, it signals a reversal in strength/trend. By waiting for this to happen to two currencies during the same candle, an entry signal is created (CAD=red, JPY=white) The current trend has not ended, however. Based on previous data, it looks like it will take 3-4 more candles for the CAD and JPY lines...

KyleBaran Updated 

My FICO indicator works by making a DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting their rate of change on an oscillator to show relative strength/weakness. When two currencies are on opposite ends and change directions, it is an entry signal. In this case, GBP (dull green, top) and NZD (lime green, bottom) are on opposite sides of the oscillator channel. The...

KyleBaran Updated 

Why do I think XLF may be a potential short? There are many economic catalysts this year: The Fed is monitoring interest rates and may still make adjustments. Some market consensus tools suggest 1-3 rate cuts this year (of 0.25% each), while some sources suggest that the economy is still resilient, and rates need to still be increased. Regardless of that,...

KyleBaran Updated 

I have been working on my own indicator called FICO (FX Index Curve Oscillator). It seems to perform well in backtesting and as a way to engage in forward testing, I am posting this idea. Basically it works by making our own DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting its rate of change. By looking at relative strength and weakness with each one, we can find...

KyleBaran Updated 

Current trend has been stagnating for a few days; after a solid uptrend we're entering consolidation. CLAMP indicator looks like it will turn blue in the very next session. This is technically a reversal, which my system does not trade. If entered today, the short would have a TP at $45.39, and could trend as low as 35.11 to 39.81.

KyleBaran Updated 

As detailed on the chart, the trend has continued for some time, however price action may go back to the downside and move in our favor. If you entered on Feb 6th with the original cross signal, you'd still be waiting for the trade to do its thing; waiting to enter now basically gave us a pullback in our favor. Not sure I'd enter a position short here, but the...

KyleBaran Updated 

Trade Journal - WEAT, Jan 19 (long) Thesis Last year, inflation was high due to increased input costs of oil. Russia's invasion of Ukraine created supply issues and an increase in demand / reduction in supply. However, WEAT did not perform as expected, and only saw mild gains. In retrospect, this seems to have been due to pulling from 2021's supply of grains....

KyleBaran Updated 

Thesis Did not pay attention to TA at all. Stock doubled in price today, causing extreme rise in IV pricing on options. Opened a debit calendar spread to take advantage of high IV. Discovery Looked at trending tickers for the day. Correlation N/A Entry +2 7.00C Feb 24 @ 1.48 -1 5.00C Feb 10 @ 1.61 (12.95 fees) Net: -$148.95 Here is a graphic which...

KyleBaran Updated 

Thesis Closing price moved upwards past the baseline during the last few sessions. CLAMP indicator should have been yellow before entering this trade , but it is very likely that it will be yellow as of Feb 7th. Discovery FAZE was on my watchlist after looking at the screener. At the time I was looking for stocks that moved +/- a certain amount on the week...

KyleBaran Updated 

UUUU has been trending between $6 to $9 over the last year or two. It seems like it hit a local top and I believe it will head back down. On Feb 6th it closed within the baseline, and I watched and waited for it today; I entered a short position around 1 pm and it retraced and went back up. It never actually closed past my baseline ; I should have waited for...

KyleBaran Updated 

Thesis Closing price has not moved past the baseline - this trade should not have been entered. However, the CLAMP indicator is yellow (positive) which indicates a forming trend. Given, the volatility of this stock, it has the potential to move sharply up. This feels like it was entered as a calculated FOMO trade. Discovery BTB was on my watchlist after...

KyleBaran Updated 

Thesis Crossed baseline recently, CLAMP is yellow (positive), correlation agrees. Discovery After entering a trade with BTB, I saw it correlated negatively to XOP, the oil and gas exploration etf. DRIP is a leveraged play on this symbol. Correlation +: BTB, XAGUSD, VIX -: RUBUSD, XOP, UUUU Because we entered this symbol due to XOP correlation from BTB,...

KyleBaran

Keeping an eye on JETS. Fib levels from the previous high and low put the retracement range to being 18.36 to 19.46. If it pulls back, it will likely cross my baseline (Keltner/SSL Hybrid) and have a possible short signal. My CLAMP indicator has also turned blue, which indicates the previous MA has entered a negative direction. I am not entering this trade yet,...

KyleBaran Updated 

Trade Journal - HCMLY, Apr 8 (long) Tracking Apr 8 + Went long 20 shares to have exposure to sand for long term thesis - Again, converted it into a swing trade - Again, did not enter based on TA - TP was quickly hit, did not scale out Jun 10 - Increased position size by 35. This is fine for DCA strategy, and might have been what I did. However, I made the...

KyleBaran Updated 

Tracking Nov 14 + Went long 2 shares to have exposure to gold for long-term investment. - Changed mind and did a swing trade on it instead - Did not enter based on TA - Stoploss was hit and did not exit position - Did not have an ideal amount of risk for this position (position size too small) Dec 1 - Hit TP and did not scale out Dec 12 - Crossed baseline and...

KyleBaran Updated 

Tracking Nov 16 + Went long 10 shares to have exposure to copper for long-term investment. - Changed mind and did a swing trade on it instead - Did not enter based on TA - Would have hit my SL immediately Dec 15 - Crossed baseline and did not exit position Jan 10 + Hit my TP and sold half, moved SL to break even + Kept adjusting SL as the TP was hit Feb 2 ? SL...