LHMacro

LHMacro

Gold traded to more than 13% above it's 200d Moving Average. Each of the previous times this has occurred, Gold stalled out for the next month or longer. Would not be surprised if we saw the yellow metal to take a breather here.

LHMacro

2year Yield hovering right around the declining 50d after bouncing from the 3.50% level amidst a major momentum divergence. Giving the broader technical picture, would still lean towards this being a countertrend bounce within the structural downtrend. Could this be a set up to buy back into Bonds?

LHMacro

Pure Value & Low Vol relative to Pure Growth & High Beta. The rotation away from duration and beta has been very strong the past 2 months. As QT begins and liquidity dries up even more, I’d continue to favor shorter duration & lower beta segments of the market.

LHMacro

Value is currently oversold within a Long-Term uptrend relative to Growth. Would not be surprised to see the recent weakness from Value/strength from Growth abate here.

LHMacro

Lumber continues to surge, hitting a new recored 6m ROC. It is also right around the 1.618 extension of the all-time low to the '93 high (the only other period with a price spike of similar magnitude).

LHMacro Updated 

$LUMBER - Pushing back towards all time highs, however the 12Month ROC is still extremely elevated, in the 99th percentile of all time, likely a bit extended and the supply/demand dynamics should start stabilizing as (knock on wood) these second wave of lockdowns ease up

LHMacro

Here's a monthly chart of $IWD /$IWF (black line, rhs) and the US 10yr yield (orange, lhs) going back 15 years or so. The bottom panel here is the rolling 36month (aka 3yr) correlation between these two. As you can see, the rolling correlation currently sits at 0.88. While not quite as high as a few months ago, it seems clear that yields are still very much...

LHMacro

Now it's flagging after running up post-C&Hs. Looks like it wants to breakout to the upside.

LHMacro

Retesting decade long downtrend line as well as 200d MA after initially breaking out and being rejected at the 38.2% retracement.

LHMacro

Value showing meaningful outperformance for the first time in a decade. Might see a pause here as ratio bounces off of key support zone.

LHMacro

This is one of my favorite comparison chart and is a clean, simple way to show the intermarket relationships and how important the yield environment is for certain other markets.

LHMacro

Nintendo with a nice little retest after it's long term breakout.. Video Game stocks leaders heading into their busiest time of the year.

LHMacro

BTCUSD - Big base, great LT Trends, and a whole lot of momentum... I certainly would not want to be short bitcoin right now.