An inverted yield curve, when US 10 year bond yield minus US 3 month bond yield has become negative, that has always preceded an economic recession, similar to prior March 2020 covid crash.
Watch this space to see if it happens again in the near team.
US Bond Yield (and prices) have been an early indicator of future market prices. Eg. US 1yr yield vs US 10 yr yield, if it goes negative, means the world's largest pool of investors (US bond market) believes that near term there will be a financial crisis/market crash/deflationary cycle.
TLT shows whether smart investors believe the stock market will perform well in the next few months to few years. TLT downtrend shows investors are moving funds to stocks, showing bullish for stocks. TLT uptrend shows investors believe stocks will be falling, so they buy into TLT instead.
TLT vs DJT divergence forming for past few months. DJT usually acts as leading indicator to economic slowdowns. TLT usually acts as leading indicator to market tops. Right now both and showing a leading indicator towards possible slowdown and market top, how will it affect the extended bull run moving on?
Trend analysis, title says it all. Usually a strong trending currency will reverse over time and you can use it to trade against the weakest currency to increase your odds of success!
