Ludwig_Von_Mises

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

In a year that will likely be mired with rate cuts, QE, and rising budget deficits - expect gold to continue its 2019 breakout. Fibonacci, trendline, and XAUJPY calculations give us a target range of 1711-1823 in the price of gold. In achieving this target we expect silver to catch up at least to the low 20's. This move looks highly likely in 2020 and will...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

I believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line. If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately. If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace,...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

This is the Gold Miners Index to DXY ratio. This feels likes 2001 or 2009. Gold is correlating with Fed Funds, the monetary base, and the DXY like its 2009 and 2001. Gold stocks are priced like its 2009. Since 2019 we have seen the Fed Funds Rate free fall, since September 2019 we have seen the monetary base expand past the low set in December 2016, same with...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

Technical breakout and retest. My expectation for 2020 is a volatile market for both the US indices and for the gold miners. I think gold miners will actually outperform US stocks to the downside here and then will explode higher once we reach full ZIRP and QE5++. The SPX and other US indices could take a major blow in terms of gold which will drag down gold...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

Look for gold to perform similarly to how it behaved from 2009-2011. I believe a significant part of gold's bear market from 2011-2015 was due to the world placing trust in the Central Banks and believing the lie that the Central banks had saved the day. That trust is fading quickly, evidenced from gold's move from 1180 to 1700 in the last 15 months. When ZIRP...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

The S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

The 1.5-year-old declining resistance line (magenta) has proven too strong for the 4 year rising support (blue) which was broken just last week due to the record drop in the US indices. The drop was due to a combination of a market that had been overzealous and priced to perfection in an increasingly deteriorating economic environment. The coronavirus certainly...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

As you should know, ratios are measured from 0-1. The Gold mining sector hit its all-time high in 1984, registering a 0.9 on the ratio. An individual company can go to zero, but an entire sector like metals cannot unless humanity gets wiped out. The mining sector is the closest to zero it has ever been. The last time it was this low was when gold bottomed in the...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Back in early October I posted a commodities chart. On that chart I shared my thesis that Gold's 6-year breakout in May would retest and commodities would follow on the next leg up. I later posted that "unofficial QE would add fuel into inflationary forces". With Gold breaking out of its healthy correction, inflation hitting 9-year highs, the Fed saying they will...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Once again, notice how orderly and well-respected the trendlines are throughout a 21 and 24-year expansion. Show these US stock market charts to anyone who tells you that technical analysis doesn't work. Study these time periods and become well-acquainted with the stock market parabolas throughout history.

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

In July of 1982 the S&P 500 bottomed and began its next bull market. It made a parabolic attempt in 1987 but was smashed down. Notice how orderly and well-respected the 13-year rising trendlines were. The SPX then made a 2nd parabolic attempt in 1995 but this time it was successful and lasted for 5 years. I'm sharing these analyses of previous parabolas in the...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Spanish mountain has very little debt and is highly leveraged to the price of silver. Very little downside here, tons of mid & long-term upside potential. Intrinsically undervalued company & assets. They're sitting on a literal mountain of silver trading well below their 2016 peak. Conservatively I see SPA / SPAZF increasing 150% in 2020. All this requires is...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

With silver likely to surpass its 2016 peak of $21 this year in 2020, some of the overlooked silver junior miners may catch a bid here. In order to get back to just its 2016 peak, Impact Silver would need to increase 197%. I think at minimum we will get a 100% move in Impact Silver in 2020, with a less likely upward potential of 275%. This a miner you want to...

Ludwig_Von_Mises

This commodity ratio cannot go to zero and its the closest to zero it has ever been. This ratio has likely not hit its bottom just yet but this is a strategic time to be building exposure to platinum and reducing exposure to palladium. Even with platinum having broken out of major resistance in the first two weeks of 2020, palladium may still have room to go...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Silver had a nice surge earlier in the year as Gold surged to $1550. Overall, Silver has underperformed gold this year and remains undervalued relative to gold. As the metals finish and round out of this consolidation (retest of the breakout) look for gold to move towards $1711 and $1834. Silver and Platinum will both follow gold's move and will outperform. We...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Gold miners versus the price of gold itself is the cheapest it has ever been. The gold mining sector cannot go to zero and it is the closest to zero it has ever been. How often does one get the opportunity to enter a sector at generational Value investors should love this sector. - fundamentally undervalued. basing at all-time lows - Gold achieved 6-year highs...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

I'm bullish in the short-term and through 2020. - Natural Gas ($2.327) is currently sitting below the 20d ($2.37), 50d ($2.56), and 200d ($2.8) MAs. - The recent retest of the 13-year falling trendline (orange) should also strengthen bull cases. In 2016 the trendline changed from resistance to support. And most recently in August, Natural Gas bounced off this...

Ludwig_Von_Mises Updated 

Simply a return to 2016 levels would net us a 350% return. Hyper-conservatively speaking, bare minimum, I see a 50-90% increase in AUMN in the near future. If AUMN experiences a crash near previous lows, I will be buying while others are selling.