MT-Macro

MT-Macro Updated 

Risk markets were a bloodbath this week. Explosive moves in the RV yield curve space caused ripple effects across a variety of asset classes. The US equity market was significantly affected, albeit only 2.5% from SPY ATHs. That said, there were some vicious sector rotations with momentum (TSLA,AAPL) really underperforming. EM took the brunt of this hit too, with...

MT-Macro Updated 

EUR/USD has recently broken below some key technical levels of support such as 1.2050. Recent USD resilience could wane over the next few days as positioning in euro cleans up. Coming into January, many managers had the reflation bet on, which encompasses the long EURUSD trade. This trade caught them wrong-footed, and many managers squared out during a period of...

MT-Macro Updated 

The dollar has recently broken out against a variety of EMFX crosses. Interestingly, the picture is not the same in the G10 space. With the 10Y yield breaking higher, the narrative is that foreign investors are suddenly attracted to US yield and the dollar receives a bid as a result. We believe it is simply due to rapid growth and inflation expectations changing...

MT-Macro Updated 

With today's move in EMFX, and particular dollar strength...it's time to leg back into EM exposure. One EM exposure we like is Brazil. EWZS, the Brazilian small cap ETF, is sitting at it's lower Bollinger band on the daily chart, as well as approaching a cluster of EMAs. I'd leg into a small position here.

MT-Macro Updated 

Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and...

MT-Macro Updated 

When growth and inflation around the world are seemingly increasing on a MoM basis, consumer discretionary stocks perform well. We've seen this across the board so far this year, and in the latter parts of 2020. Ferrari is no exception, with a premium luxury brand with international recognition. Recently, RACE has been pulling back, and I'd look to start to leg...

MT-Macro Updated 

ETSY seems to be forming a bullish flag on the 4H time horizon. The company saw a huge run toward the end of 2020, and has recently sold off amongst the broader market. Now that we are in another bullish tape, ETSY looks ripe for a rebound and a test of former highs. Fundamentally, the ecommerce business should continue to see buying in the current growth +...

MT-Macro Updated 

With growth and inflation rising, leading to a steeper yield curve, financials should continue to perform. One name that sold off meaningfully last week was ECPG. The debt collector should continue to do well in the immediate term given the macro tailwinds to the sector. I'd be a small buyer here, playing for a return to the recent range.

MT-Macro Updated 

Long MTCH here this morn.

MT-Macro Updated 

WTI Crude Oil initially overreacted to the news of the assassination of Soleimani in Iran. Crude has also overreacted to the downside, and is now flirting with the lower support trend-line drawn from the post drone-strike low in Q4 2019. I believe crude can rally meaningfully over the next 2 weeks, as we are at a key technical level, which is also supported by the...

MT-Macro Updated 

Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply...

MT-Macro Updated 

South Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the...

MT-Macro

Colombia is a high-beta EM country running a twin-deficit. These exposures turned bullish in November when the dollar started falling more precipitously, and the global risk backdrop improved. Dollar weakness is good for commodity exporting EM's, who price commodities in dollars. Moreover, Colombia provides significant beta to Oil prices, which are evidently...

MT-Macro Updated 

FCX, Freeport McMoran is testing a long term resistance trend-line. Copper has been unfavorable as of late due to the slowdown in Chinese growth. China is the largest buyer of Copper in the global market. However, recently, the dollar down move has been reflationary for commodities in general, with the CRB commodities index rallying. Moreover, Chinese PMI's have...

MT-Macro Updated 

Given recent tensions in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian ETF sold off and back-tested the previous resistance trend-line. The ETF has now rebounded off this trend-line, and looks bullish to continue to the July highs. Given the slightly weaker dollar macro picture, EM countries should be supported. KSA is a good play for a de-escalation in the Middle East and...

MT-Macro Updated 

Post the sugar-rush of speculative buyers, the commodity sold off heavily, gapping through a short term uptrend-line. Now the commodity, represented by the ETF JO, looks to be stabilizing at the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the Dec 13 high. Moreover, we see a cluster of moving averages, including the 200day Exponential Moving Average at this level. Given the current...