Macrobriefing

Macrobriefing Updated 

We've just had a decent pullback and now we could get the bounce. The US fiscal flows have gone into surplus. What does that mean? It means the US Treasury is taking more out of the system than they put in. This means they are taxing more than they are spending. When a government taxes they destroy the currency. This means there are fewer dollars in the system...

Macrobriefing Updated 

I know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession. Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc. But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water. There will be more and more positive fiscal...

Macrobriefing Updated 

The USDJPY has a potential two set ups to the long side, which isn't helpful, especially as it failed to break Friday's high or low during the overnight session. I am looking for longs as the EURJPY and GBJPY have taken out Friday's high, and there is a clear trade off level for each. GBPJPY EURJPY The RRR is also greater than 1:2 for all trades, so as long...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Still waiting for a long set up on USDJPY. The start is similar to that of yesterday as we have not seen a move above yesterday's high. So now we're just waiting to see if the bulls will buy at a discount. EURJPY and GBPJPY will be pushed around by the USDJPY so if all 3 line up on an area of demand, I'll pull the trigger.

Macrobriefing Updated 

Currently, the USDJPY is trapped between a previous day's high and a recent day's low. Until we break out of this range there is little to do. Yesterday's target was not the rebalancing of the previous 3 days' action but the high from the 13th. If we get a break below this level, I'll have to look for a short down to 132.50 The DXY higher time frame chart shows...

Macrobriefing

After examining the Weekly chart for the DXY, it appears to me that the dollar flow is likely to continue downward for some time. Today's Advance GDP q/q reading is expected to be 2.0%, following the disappointing last reading of 2.6%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Claims are anticipated to be higher, at around 247K. In my recent blog posts, I discuss the...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Always looking for a pattern, mainly to define risk and to anticipate a Take Profit Target. If you got stuck in a short due to a breakout and then we see a deep retrace. We could be looking for the classic AB=CD pattern. I always trade a RRR of 1:2 , so this AB=CD would not meet my TP target.

Macrobriefing Updated 

Euro Inflation data out this week, as well as the Aussie CPI. From TD Securities, talking about the Euro HICP: Softer energy inflation likely continued to weigh on headline inflation in the EZ. That said, on a m/m basis, energy inflation likely stayed resilient, in part as subsidized prices won't have declined by as much as wholesale prices. Core will be the...

Macrobriefing Updated 

© BNPP Global FX Positioning Tracker: CAD shorts extend • In G10, FX USD shorts reduce slightly to -17 from -18 last week (+/-50 scale), as our proxy for real money investors reduces shorts. • CAD shorts extend to -23 from -15 last week, as our proxy for electronic trading venues extends shorts and our proxy for real money investors unwinds longs. Technically...

Macrobriefing Updated 

If this is an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern, 4200 is the target. What we need to see is the price get above the recent POC. Blood is in the streets. The Fed needs to get some new expectations out and deliver some news that comforts the market. Or this is their way of creating financial turmoil that gets job losses that crushes the demand. You choose...

Macrobriefing Updated 

We may have seen a low volume spring on the USDJPY today too. If you had the capital and the tolerance for holding risk over the weekend, this may be the trade for you. However, if this is an accumulation phase, this is the start of a new bull leg higher. So buying pullbacks will be the way to get in on the action next week. Patience is a virtue and initializing...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Equity rally due to systematic buying and HF short covering. Short interest has halved from the Q4 highs for EU equities, but is still elevated in the US. Macro HFs and CTAs have turned outright long equities, and their exposure is close to 12m highs, yet still below average. Long short funds have also reduced short positions, but their net exposure remains low...

Macrobriefing Updated 

- S&P500 has broken higher, which is great for the broader markets - DJIA is up 2.57% already in 2023, if January closes higher, that bodes well for the rest of the year - FTSE100 is racing ahead of everyone and everything that I follow, apart from the DAX(Ger40), mostly due to the weighting of the index towards Oil majors - DAX is up >7% - VIX is trading...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Trend following always starts with a momentum breakout. Yesterdays close is just that.

Macrobriefing Updated 

I have been bullish the SPX, NDQ and DJI for a couple of weeks now and have given plenty of fundamental reasons why we should be. You'll have to google me to find that analysis. AUDJPY is the true risk-on/off trade and we have a buy signal

Macrobriefing

Credit Agricole say this "The GBP enjoyed new buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Crédit Agricole CIB flows. Our FX flow data points at real money investors' inflows, as well as banks, corporates, and hedge funds outflows. All in all, the GBP is now in overbought territory. The JPY faced new selling interest last week, predominantly driven by Risk...

Macrobriefing Updated 

A trend-following strategy that only takes a few minutes at the end of the day to set up and forget. On the GBPAUD the shorts have been triggered and now we wait to see if we get to TP1 and a trend continuation. Due to the initial stop being very wide, the risk per trade means the nominal lot size is very small.

Macrobriefing Updated 

If we get a good NFP number tomorrow, does that mean the US jobs market is strong? What will the Fed do? Raise rates, increase QT? Fundamentally we should be seeing lower GDP, lower wages, lower demand and with that lower Oil. Technically, we have higher GDP, stable wages, mixed changes in demand and lower oil. This EOD strategy has been set, and now we just...