Macrobriefing

Macrobriefing Updated 

The EURJPY is now following the USDJPY lower. Due to the 100pip move, we are now at Break Even and will continue with a trailing stop.

Macrobriefing Updated 

The technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Looking for the AUDJPY to tumble and fall as market flows into the yen continue. The only problem I have fundamentally with this pair being short potentially is the fact that it usually equates to the Indices being a short too. We just have to trade what we see.

Macrobriefing Updated 

So we have a resurgent US dollar. In this trade, the USDCAD triggered and now, we're waiting for PT 1 Trend following and at the end-of-day adjustments means we can now wait for 24 hours before doing anything.

Macrobriefing Updated 

It's been about 6 months since I got the last bullish signal for BTCUSD. The long-term moving average is still above, so I am not suggesting that BTCUSD is going to $1mil anytime soon, but if we are to see a trend in the future, it has to start somewhere. Today could be that day. Only time will tell. First thing to look for is a move to TP1, then Stops will be...

Macrobriefing

Following on from the bullish signal in the EURJPY, a few days ago we had a GBPJPY long signal setup. Still waiting for a trigger and also due to the Central Banks this week, I wanted to hold off from publishing it. We have now had the Fed, BoE and ECB, so feel better that this is still pending to go long.

Macrobriefing

Here is what the fundamentals are following the ECB rate decision today, words from ©Lloyds Bank European Central Bank (Dec): We're not pivoting The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates today by 50bps, in line with expectations. It follows 75bp hikes in the last two meetings in September and October, and a 50bp rise in July. There was broad...

Macrobriefing Updated 

I am personally short the EURUSD at the start of the London session. If you are looking for a Bullish scenario then maybe follow Credit Suisse who say Support is seen at 1.0510 initially, with the low from Friday and 13-day exponential average at 1.0428/1.0397 ideally holding on a closing basis to keep the immediate risk higher. A close lower can see a deeper...

Macrobriefing Updated 

If the retail trading pattern plays out, price action will break out of this descending channel. The only way I see this accelerating is if we get a continued decline in the US dollar. Nothing else has changed geopolitically or economically. Monetarists still believe that increased rate hikes will bring down the economy, yet the Atlanta Fed's own GDPNow model is...

Macrobriefing Updated 

The yen’s up by nearly 8% against a correcting dollar, and by more than 10% against all the Latam currencies which have been the best FX performers this year. Back in 1998, USD/JPY was halfway through a correction that took it almost back to 100, after rallying from just above 100 to just below 1 150 in1996/1997, and then falling back in 1998/1999. A cynic might...

Macrobriefing Updated 

The CAD is bucking the trend as I have two Aussie trades which show the AUD strengthening. Whereas this trade idea is suggesting the CAD goes lower. Is oil on the way down too? Nothing to do until we get triggered.

Macrobriefing Updated 

New analysts claim that the S&P 500 provides a better picture of the markets compared to the Dow. Although the S&P 500 obviously has a larger catalog, the Dow is a direct reflection of international capital flows. Look toward the Dow to see where big money is moving. The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index....

Macrobriefing Updated 

Looking for the GBPAUD to break the recent intraday high and then move into the next bullish trading range. EURUSD , GBPUSD etc. have pushed higher during the London open. With the return of traders from the Thanksgiving holiday period I am hoping for a bigger move later on today.

Macrobriefing

© RBC Euro area economics: Previewing next week’s key euro area inflation release The November euro area ‘flash’ HICP estimate is published on Wednesday, with country-level data for Germany and Spain released on Tuesday, and data for France and Italy in advance on Wednesday morning. Next week’s euro area HICP release is likely to be particularly significant,...

Macrobriefing Updated 

USD/JPY: curve inversion taking over? While the FOMC Minutes showed that a substantial majority of FOMC members thought it would likely soon be appropriate to reduce the pace of rate hikes, they also pointed to various members believing the terminal rate was somewhat higher than previously expected. This rhetoric echoed that of Chair Jerome Powell in...

Macrobriefing Updated 

German PMI figures outperformed expectations, reaching 46.7, strengthening MoM by a value of 1.6 indexed. Whilst this is still firmly in contractionary territory for the German economy and the number of new orders remains heavily depressed, It was still a kernel of good news for Germany and the wider Eurozone. By the same token, Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures...

Macrobriefing

From HSBC this morning: The UK PMIs were both unchanged from their October levels in November, with manufacturing at 46.2 (consensus: 45.8), and services at 48.8 (consensus: 48.0). This marked the fourth consecutive month in which the composite PMI (48.3) was below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector activity, with the surveyors reporting that...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Looking for Oil to keep pushing lower but willing to wait for a bounce off the median line first. The talk is for a recession, the US Treasuries are being bought, and the USDJPY has come off its highs. Just need a breakout of the recent lows and some follow-through. The markets have been very range-bound recently so lots of false breakouts, so be aware of the...