Macrobriefing

Macrobriefing Updated 

Shorts only for the US dollar today, but looking at the chart we have a reasonable target to the downside which would complete a channel. A further push lower into an imbalance with a swing low with plenty of stops below it. To the upside, we have a double top and a continuation of a larger/higher time frame bullish trend. In these markets, you need to pick a...

Macrobriefing

Nothing goes up forever. We also have the US mid-term elections starting so there is an air of uncertainty around the markets. If the status quo remains politically, the Fed's monetarism will continue and the DXY should go higher. If things change after the mid-term elections, monetary policy may also change. We have to wait and see. Currently, the only people...

Macrobriefing

A bearish weekly close is always a matter of concern. Shows the bears are in control. Luckily last week's bounce was off a level of interest but the bearish signal would continue below that level and would accelerate if we closed below it. There haven't been many weeks out of the last 20 years where the SPX traded below the weekly 200 moving average. So it is a...

Macrobriefing

I am a bigger believer in sell low, buy lower, than I am in support and resistance. Golds reversal on Friday was accompanied by a rally in metals and commodities, meaning the US dollar weakness was in play rather than a new demand for commodities or precious metals. If we get a renewed strength in the greenback the price of Gold will tumble. What else has changed...

Macrobriefing

2016-2017 NFP Average = 168k (Trump Era) 2017-2018 NFP Average = 198k 2018-2019 NFP Average = 164k 2019-2020 NFP Average = -796k (COVID-19) 2020-2021 NFP Average = 474k (Biden Era) 2021-2022 NFP Average = 410k There was a time when 261k would have been outstanding, but following on from the big job reset in 2019/2020 the average was above 400k.

Macrobriefing Updated 

Will the market keep pushing lower as the pound falls precipitously or has the sweep of the recent swing low been enough to gather the buy orders. I wouldn't buy here, right now, but I would short a new low.

Macrobriefing Updated 

The GBPUSD is moving impulsively. A break lower than the current intraday low would signal a continuation of this bear move. The market has sold off continuously since the Bank of England raised rates, and this week is no different.

Macrobriefing Updated 

If the price action can get above 89.18, there is a decent probability of a continuation higher, as the oil markets have been grinding higher these last few weeks. A failure to get to the top of the most recent bull flag could be at the start of a distribution phase under the $90 mark. A stronger US dollar will put pressure on all commodities, and therefore the...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Waiting to see if the sellers step aside now from the 0.98800 level or whether they fight to keep it during today's NY session. FOMC raised by 75bps but NFP came in strong. Was the rate hike enough to kill job growth? GDP is being revised higher by the Atlanta Fed too. Powell will want to see some demand destruction before easing off the rate hikes. US dollar has...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Looking for a new lower low, to continue the decline of GBPJPY There is a massive imbalance that the market will look to fill and that ties in nicely with the target for today. A risk of 1:2 on every trade means we don't need to even get 50% correct and still come out on top.

Macrobriefing Updated 

I'd only consider going short the EURCAD today. All trades need to be closed by the end of the NY session on a Friday so as not to hold risk overnight. The ECB is looking for a recession and seems happy to keep killing productivity with rate hikes. The single currency is f'd.

Macrobriefing Updated 

You just need to look up the 2B entry system, but, because Tradingview is a place where no one thinks for themselves or is autobot compelled to write more. Here goes. 2nd November oil rallied in a continuation of the move from 31st October. It then dipped below the weekly opening gap, before pushing to a new high. That big push from 88.50 to 90.80 culminated in a...

Macrobriefing

In an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and then prices drop below the previous high, then the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for down trends. This observation applies in any of the three trends; short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term. A 2B on a minor high or low will usually occur within one day or less of the time...

Macrobriefing Updated 

I will be looking for the EURUSD to carry on dropping today. This is also true for the GBPUSD, EURJPY and GBPJPY. Being short 2* GBP*** means I am doubling up my pound short exposure, same for the Euro. The US dollar is strengthening into the London session open

Macrobriefing

A lot of traders will be looking at this pattern today. Will the RH shoulder form and will the price travel back up to the neckline? The speculators will buy here, which means they will put their stops under the head. A big pool of liquidity is always a big magnet for stop hunters. I don't trade these patterns but I keep an eye on the market structure to keep...

Macrobriefing

Looking for the continuation higher in the US dollar index following the London open. We had a bull flag and have started to move but we need confirmation that the overnight trading is supported by the London trading desks when they digest what the Fed said last night.

Macrobriefing

So Tuesday, the high of the week? quite possibly. Wednesday, FOMC and Powell announce a 75bps rate hike. Talks down the market. Conveniently for anyone that shorted the gap fill, their target of the resting liquidity under the double bottom was realised.

Macrobriefing Updated 

150.00 is obviously an important level for the market. The BoJ certainly took notice at the breach of that level. The current intra-day trend is higher, with the US dollar appreciating against a basket of currencies.