MarkLefevre

MarkLefevre

12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very...

MarkLefevre

Traders are celebrating the enormous 10% surprise Bitcoin breakout. Have they heard of trends and divergences?

MarkLefevre

On US presidential election day, as a Donald Trump victory began to look certain, US Treasury yields experienced a startling increase in the span of a few hours. Truly extraordinary. But is this the start of a new trend or just an acceleration of the old trend? The US10Y was so far rejected at resistance it was preordained to test. Maybe nothing has changed and...

MarkLefevre

The percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.

MarkLefevre

This is the complete history of every Bitcoin Monthly RSI bearish divergence. Incredibly, all that work you've been doing analyzing the Bitcoin chart was inferior to just looking for simple RSI divergences, which have called every cycle top in Bitcoin's entire history. And done so with precision.

MarkLefevre

Retest of support after major breakout of the TLT5 exactly at historic bond moment, slope of the 20 Week SMA crossing over simultaneously. BBOT

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD may have broken its 7 month resistance and is currently retesting it as support, but BTCEUR was precisely rejected at the trend.

MarkLefevre

Slope of the 20 Week SMA of EURoUSD coincides nicely with all Bitcoin macro events such as cycle tops and bottoms. Interesting linearities abound. Haven't dug into this at all, so lots of room for improvement.

MarkLefevre

Sorry, no breakout here. Just an exact, perfect, rejection from the longest running resistance in Bitcoin's history, from the perspective of Bitcoin's USD market cap.

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD ratio with CRB Commodity Index shows failed retest of long term macro resistance. Sorry, folks, no breakout here.

MarkLefevre

Bitcoin priced in Gold shows a failed test of the 220 day long resistance trend line, no break out.

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD/SPX shows a failed attempt to breakout of the 7 month long trend

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD/QQQ shows failed retest of 7 month resistance, not a breakout

MarkLefevre

The BTCUSD bottom of the March 2020 Covid-19 correction looks a lot like a textbook flip of resistance into support when adjusted for the money supply.

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD has broken out of the range it has been stuck in for over 7 months. BTCUSD/WM1NS, Bitcoin adjusted for the supply of the US Dollar, did not. It perfectly retested the resistance it has been stuck under for 7 months and was cleanly and precisely rejected.

MarkLefevre

Perfect linearity in the Mid-Cycle crossings of the BTCUSD Monthly Stochastic RSI. This Mid-Cycle isn't different this time. Mathematically it is exactly the same as every other very (overly and early) bullish Mid-Cycle.

MarkLefevre

Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand. The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends. SOURCE: x.com

MarkLefevre

Current deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble. Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)