I will put out a couple timeframe on the SPY. I'll start out and move inward. So this is the monthly. Nice rooftop pivot still holding. One thing to notice is 2 of the last 3 months are green and pushing up on the channel. Also note the RSI looks to have started to rise and possibly the MACD is curling?
In this chart of the VIX daily I have changed the final pattern to a Bullish Flagish pattern. I anticipate the VIX to rise also due to macro conditions, and Data Flow, and of course Earnings. Earnings I am back and forth on since Bank reporting..... Thats going to be a big tell IMO. This pattern morphed since last week when I was calling it a more of a bullish...
This chart is an inverted chart of the IEF/LQD ratio with a SPX (SP500) overlay line chart Not Inverted . This shows the corrrelation to easing conditions and the S&P500. This is what the FOMC is failing at fighting. With QT and rate hikes, this has only had pullbacks. Jawboning too.
On this Weeklty SPY ETF chart (SP500 Proxy), we see the upper trendline on the bear trend (yes i made it green sorry) is being tested and spiking it again. This has repeatedly resulted in a rejection. CPI came in sorta inline which gave a little boost this week, but bank earnings disappointed when you look in the line items of the reports. This is an inflection...
VIX Daily represented in a Symetrical Triangle coming into the pattern from a bearish stance. This generally signifies a continuation pattern as it has on this chart. Its odd to see the VIX dropping while the SPX is also dropping today. Lets see if that holds. We may get BTD going on and the VIX may retest the pattern as it should.
It looks like we are one again in a bear rally that has made it to the upper bear trendline. In the recent past (circled) we have seen rejection, and some throw overs that pull the rug out. Im not sure if this is the same, but the daily RSI is still in a spot it can run, and the MACD has curled up.... So... It looks like it can run a couple more days before...
Pretty large pattern. I wanted to draw it as a diamond reversal pattern, but it was more so because i expected the SP500 to drop not rally today. Nope... Trust the patterns. Lets see how low the VIX can go. It was in the 19's when I published this.....
Well this inversion is probably more popular than the 10yr-03mo, and it also keeps looking worse! They are both inverted pretty deep as I mentioned on the 10-3mo published chart. This is also often a key leading recession indicator.
Well this keeps looking worse! Many follow the 10-2y, some prefer this 10y-3mo yield curve. They are both inverted pretty deep. This is often a key leading recession indicator.
Probably my favorite SPY chart. Looks like were testing that upper trend line again. Lets see how it goes with CPI this week. It could finally break my weekly pattern...... Or not.
So is this really a channel, or a bear flag? I go back and forth. At this second i am calling it a channel as its consolidated for basically 2 weeks. It could break up or down. Fundamentals are definitely pointing down..... but I dont follow the lemmings as much as I used to ;)
Wow, VIX "feels" low al;ready, but a further meld down could drive equities up. Seems Insane, but yeah......
Thought s on the SPY Daily and what it means to markets today and tomorrow. Good Stuff.
So in this video i talk about the current state of the SPY and where I think it may head form here. These are only my opinions and not suggested for any trade or financial use.
I am looking at the SPY frequently on many time frames. I have posted this weekly as I think it visually represents our situation the best.
In this video I discuss the ticker "TICK" which is a value indicative of the volume of buy and sell programs running through the NYSE. Usually these are great indicators of when institutional wants to push through resistance and support. Ive also seen them used to set the tone for the day in the morning, and also help close where institutional wants at close. In...
As you can see the inverted IEF/LQD is a great correlation to the SPX (SP500 market). Makes sense as the fed is failing to tighten financial conditions, actually LOOSENING them somehow. This not only sent equities racing up but also helped set up the conditions to invert the 10-2. The 10-3mo is close behind. Those are sending recession signals even if equities are...