MichaelFX_ICT

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

The price has swept some liquidity above this year's equal highs while at the same time diverging with Euro both on HTF and MTF. The target for this move is EQL.

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

The increase in Tesla stock prices of over 3,000% between 2019 and 2021 is obviously unsustainable. In my opinion, a further decline with EQLL liquidity grab of at least 35% from the current valuation to the first monthly demand zone is very likely. The most probable, in my opinion, is a low in the next zone. This would mean the price would drop over 84% from its...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

On the XAUUSD chart, a clear SMC setup is seen. After the liquidity grab, the price has reacted to the weekly daily-refined supply zone with a Head and Shoulders formation (4H). To complete this formation, the price might bounce off the 4-hour flip zone. Drops, breaking through the support and making the next break of structure, can stop at the nearest demand zone...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the...

MichaelFX_ICT

Let's see what the 2008 analogy says about the next thing. Currently, we can observe a similarity in many charts, e.g., the S&P 500 index, VIX, gold, and USOIL / UKOIL, to what was happening in 2008. Copper is no exception, and the analogy indicates copper's price decline. If the price follows it perfectly, the declines may end in the second zone. But I do not...

MichaelFX_ICT

The actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving...

MichaelFX_ICT

Presently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on...

MichaelFX_ICT

There was a big rally on the WSE recently - 16 green Heikin Ashi candles in a row. Now it's time for a continuation of the downtrend or, less likely, a correction in the new bullish trend. Why? There is: - an important supply-resistance level - a supply zone - 1-hour confirmation - Head and Shoulders formation - weekly confirmation - an ending bearish candle and...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

Log scale. I predict a further decline in Solana's price due to the head-to-shoulder formation and the still unfilled imbalance. Target 1 is very likely to be achieved. The same with Target 2 due to the inefficiency and still unmitigated demand zone. Target 3 is pretty extreme to reach, but we will see.

MichaelFX_ICT

Now we have a period of high inflation that, in my opinion, will continue for some time. Even if it falls (as the M2 money stock decline points out), we may have a second reversal wave of inflation during the revival after the current bear market. For this reason, a lot of people are waiting for a pivot, which, according to them, will mark the low. This statement...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

I present my long-term view on the crypto market in the coming time. Currently, my focus is on the current bear market—how it is going, how it will run, and where it can end. In my opinion, when analyzing the cryptocurrency market, we should be focused on the stock market as a leading market. Actually, I consider the 2008 analogy to the S&P 500 index and the VIX...

MichaelFX_ICT

A pure trend analysis of US interest rates and inflation. In my opinion, the cheap money and low inflation era has ended in the long term.

MichaelFX_ICT

As with Tesla stocks, such increases were unsustainable. In my opinion, Nvidia is a very qualitative company, so after potential drops under the Cisco analogy ( CSCO ) from the dotcom bubble, it may be worth buying. Cisco ( CSCO ) during the dotcom bubble grew by 1500% from March 1997 to March 2000 (35 monthly bars) and then decreased by 90.10% (in 31 monthly...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

I consider a possible downtrend correnction or even a trend reversal on the Euro-USDollar pair. Price drew a good trend reversal pattern which cointains a false breakout of the trend line and then a new, lower low. But I think it is only a correction, not a reversal. The US Dollar's foundations are stronger than the Euro's. The scenario will be fulfilled if the...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

Due to a head and shoulders pattern, a trend break, a supply reaction and an RSI divergence, I predict a decrease in natural gas' price.

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

I think there is a probability of a correction in the dollar index. We can notice a false breakout of the trend line and price reactions to the supply zones. It is not a perfect reversal or correction pattern (because there is no higher high), but we can expect it is a break of the structure (because of a supply reaction). Anyway, we should be careful on the...

MichaelFX_ICT Updated 

In four of the last five cases, we rebounded from the averages, which heralded increases in Bitcoin's price. For a while now, we have gone below those moving averages, which does not seem to be any good. This is the fourth close of the weekly candle below 200 MA. DISCLAIMER It is not financial advice. It is only my own view of the market.