Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

USD/JPY remains under pressure. Momentum readings and the Tension Indicator (not shown) continue to weaken, highlighting fresh downside risks in the coming weeks. A close below the 111.59 low of 7 February will confirm continuation of the December 2016 bear trend, with focus then turning to the 110.27 low of 22 November. Just lower is the 109.93 Fibonacci...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The VIX is showing signs of stabilisation within the November 2016 bear trend as bearish stochastics and momentum studies continue to unwind. Strengthening in the Tension Indicator (not shown) also suggests improvement, with further downside risks expected to remain limited. A break below psychological support at 10.00 cannot be ruled out, but further supports...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The VIX remains within the November 2016 bear trend, highlighting potential downside risks in the coming weeks. However, signs of stabilisation are appearing as bearish stochastics and momentum studies continue to unwind. Strengthening in the Tension Indicator (not shown) also suggests improvement, with further downside risks expected to remain limited. A break...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The UK FTSE100 Index is extending the bounce from the 7093.57 low of 2 February. Rising daily studies suggest further short-term gains, but falling weekly stochastics and a weakening Tension Indicator (not shown) suggest any immediate tests of critical resistance at the 7354.15 high of January should be treated with caution. In the coming weeks, risk/reward...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The USD DXY Index is extending the bounce from the 99.23 low of 2 February and 99.25, (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2016-2017 rally. The 101.00 barrier has been reached, but improving studies suggest a further break. Next resistance is at the 101.53, (50%) Fibonacci retracement of the January-February fall, but the 101.73 high of 19 January is expected to...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

High Grade Copper has broken above critical resistance at the USD2.7400 year high of November 2016. Further gains are highlighted in the coming weeks, as momentum studies tick higher and sentiment improves, with a break above the USD2.7670 high of June 2015 targeting historic congestion around USD2.8000. Still higher are the USD2.8345 high of 26 May 2015 and the...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Breaking critical USD14.55~ highs from 2015. Rising momentum and bullish Tension Indicator, (not shown), see further gains towards USD15.75 Fibonacci retracement in the coming months.

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The USD DXY Index remains in the dominant bear trend from early January, but there are signs of short-term stabilisation appearing as daily studies unwind oversold areas. A corrective bounce is possible, but any push above congestion around 101.00 is expected to find difficulty reaching the 101.73 high of 19 January, as weekly readings continue to dominate. In...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Another week of indecision in the global equities markets. Holiday thinned trading in Asia saw thin trading in both China and Hong Kong. The Emerging Markets ETF EEM is extending the bounce from the December 2016 lows, but critical resistance from the same year highs is expected to provide a barrier. Meanwhile, European markets are settling into consolidation...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

There has been little change in the US S&P500 Index, with prices consolidating beneath the 2300 level and 2302 projection. A break above the 2305 projection cannot be ruled out, as short-term studies tick higher, and sentiment remains positive. However, overstretched weekly readings and negative divergence suggest further gains could prove increasingly difficult...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

There has been little change, with High Grade Copper prices balanced around USD2.7000, confluent with the 233-month weighted MA and the (50%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2014-2016 fall. However, the underlying bullish tone is intact, as momentum studies and the positive Tension Indicator, (not shown), continue to strengthen, with clearance of here and the...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

GBP/USD has bounced sharply from the failed break below 1.2000. A short-term corrective pullback is possible, as overbought daily studies unwind, but downside risks are expected to remain limited, as momentum studies and the proprietary Tension Indicator, (not shown) show fresh signs of improvement. Support is at congestion around 1.2350, but any immediate break...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

FTSE has failed to maintain the test of the 7340, (150%) projection of the October-November fall, with prices falling sharply from 7354.15. A corrective bounce is currently developing from above the 7130~ high of October 2016, but falling stochastics and weakening investor sentiment are expected to limit upside tests. In the coming weeks, further losses are...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

High Grade Copper continues to trade higher, with prices now within reach of critical resistances at the USD2.7200 retracement and USD2.7345 year high of November 2016. However, there is risk of a short-term pullback before a clear break is seen, as daily studies become overbought. Support is at congestion around USD2.6000, but slippage beneath here should...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

A mixed week in global equities, which saw UK investors reduce exposure in the FTSE and European investors increase exposure in the German DAX Index. We see further downside risks in the UK market, but see potential for further gains in the latter, before prices also settle into consolidation. The broader based EuroStoxx 50 Index, however, remains trapped in...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The anticipated corrective pullback is underway, with prices currently finding support at the 99.85, (50%) retracement of the Nov-Jan rally. A short-term bounce is unfolding, as oversold daily studies unwind, with focus turning to the 101.73 high of 19 January. However, any tests are expected to prove difficult sustain, as weekly readings continue to...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014. Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

We have been bullish US Energy since early 2016, but price action in the past months is beginning to give us some cause for concern. With the 50% retracement of the 2014-2016 fall now reached, but not decisively broken, and stochastics very overstretched, we believe a corrective pullback is now developing. Additonally, the Energy sector is also showing signs of...