Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

There seems to be no respite in the bearish Gold trend, with prices extending the July bear trend. Falling momentum studies and bearish longer term charts suggest further downside risks into early 2017. From a cross asset perspective, Gold - and Precious Metals in general - continue to underperform US equities, suggesting asset managers will maintain a long SPX,...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

No real change in the Facebook monthly charts, as prices continue to consolidate the sharp fall from the October highs. One interesting development, however, is the deterioration in price action relative to the S&P500 Index. If this deterioration continues, asset managers will likely be forced to reduce Facebook exposure, and move into more compelling names. Is...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The gap above the USD89.37 range high of September is extending. Momentum is improving on both weekly and monthly charts. Relative to both the SPX and the Energy Index, XOM is showing fresh signs of outperformance. This suggests potential for a run towards the USD95.00/55 area, where fresh consolidation could develop as overbought weekly stochastics...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

UK equities are consolidating the steep rally from the June lows, as prices turn choppy below congestion around 7000. A push above here cannot be ruled out, as the Tension Indicator continues to advance, but falling stochastics are expected to limit scope, with the critical 7122~ contract high of April 2015 to provide a barrier. In the coming months, downside...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

US Equities have regained higher levels, with prices breaking above psychological resistance at 2200 to focus on the 2300 psychological barrier and (150%) projection of the 2015-2016 fall. Extension towards the 2332, (161.8%) retracement cannot be ruled out as the Tension Indicator continues to strengthen, but overbought stochastics and weakening background...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

There has been no change in the dominant USD/JPY trend, with prices extending the rally from the 101.15 low of November. Focus is now on the 115.60 retracement and 115.96 break level from January, but any immediate break is expected to fade beneath congestion around 117.00, as short-term studies are already overbought and stochastics remain overstretched. Any...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The anticipated minor corrective pullback has been seen, with prices unwinding lower before posting a sharp bounce from the 99.43 low of 8 December. Immediate focus is back on the 101.80, (61.8%) retracement of the 2001-2008 fall, the 102.05 monthly high of 24 November and 102.15 high of March 2003, but mixed daily studies suggest potential for consolidation...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

FTSE has bounced smartly from above the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November, with prices now pressuring the 6956.70 retracement. Extension to congestion around 7000 is highlighted from rising momentum studies, but any further gains are expected to prove difficult to maintain, as the Tension Indicator, (not shown), continues to weaken and investors maintain a...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

AUD/USD is extending the bounce from the 0.7311 monthly low of 21 November, but difficulty is seen sustaining further gains as short-term studies turn mixed. Congestion around 0.7600 is expected to provide a strong barrier, as investors remain cautious, with prices to settle into consolidation above 0.7305. An unexpected break below 0.7311, however, will turn...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

EUR/USD is balanced in choppy trade above the 1.0538 low of December 2015, as short-term studies turn mixed. Fresh losses are looked for in the coming weeks, however, as momentum studies and the Tension Indicator, (not shown), continue to weaken, with a break below critical multi-year support at the 1.0456 low of March 2015 opening up the 1.0330 year low of...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The VIX is coming under fresh downside pressure, with the November bear trend extending further, with prices now approaching trendline support from 2014 and the 11.02 low of August. A tick lower in the Tension Indicator anticipates risk of a deeper reaction towards critical support at the 10.28-10.88 year lows of 2014-2015, but any immediate tests are expected to...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Crude Oil prices have bounced from the USD44.82 low of 29 November, with prices pushing above range highs at USD51.93 to reach USD52.42. Mixed short-term studies suggest consolidation in the coming days, but improving momentum readings and the bullish Tension Indicator, (not shown), anticipate a later break, with subsequent focus turning to the USD53.25...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

As an extension to our recent post on the US Materials Sector, we have identified 8 US stocks which we think could strengthen in the coming months. Of particular interest is Mosaic (MOS): Mosaic is showing signs of base completion, as prices pressure the USD31.10 range highs. Improving studies anticipate a break towards the USD34.15 retracement, with scope for...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Within the US sectors space, we are seeing continued strength and outperformance (relative to the SP500 Index) in Energy, Financials and Industrials. However, there are early signs of improvement now appearing in the Materials sector, as prices extend the break above the 310.18 high of August. Focus is now on the 327.33 contract high of 2015, and whilst...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The bounce from the January trendline has accelerated sharply higher, with fresh demand at USD2.2000 pushing prices above critical resistance at the USD2.3235 high of March. Fibonacci resistance at the USD2.6805, (50%) retracement of the 2014-2016 fall has been reached, with potential for still further strength in the coming months towards congestion around...

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The pop higher in the SPX has reached the 2225, (76.4%) projection of the Feb-Jun rally. Next resistance is likely to be around 2250, but any break should fade beneath the 2300~, (100%) projection.

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

There is no real change in the dominant bear trend, as prices pressure $110.00. Stochastics and sentiment continue to weaken, highlighting further downside risks into the coming weeks. In tandem, Healthcare is also weakening and, along with JNJ, further underperformance relative to the SP500 Index is highlighted.

Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

The break beneath the USD42.55 low of September was not sustained, with prices bouncing sharply from USD42.20 to pressure critical resistance at the USD51.67/93 highs of June-October. Improving studies, alongside bullish background readings, anticipate further gains in the coming months, with a close above here confirming continuation of the broad rally from...