MikeSpy

MikeSpy

I was initially skeptical of the bearish case because we were able to stand strong against the Moody's downgrade, but I guess all good things come to an end, at least temporarily, especially with the bond yields spiking higher today. I drew a channel off the downtrend and I think it is pretty wide, so I would expect us to follow it at least for the next week,...

MikeSpy

Rivian has been in the dumps ever since it cratered from its IPO price, and today just under a 90% discount it is looking to start it's recovery off the back of 2 successful earnings reports while inching steadily towards a positive EPS. I drew a symmetrical triangle (its a little off symmetry but its close enough) and we broke out of it yesterday and today...

MikeSpy

I decided to swap to the weekly view and found the 3 most bullish candlestick patterns all appearing in the month of April. 1st: Piercing Pattern: This occurred on the week following Liberation day. The piercing pattern occurs when price closes above the midpoint of the prior weeks red bar after opening below the low of the previous week. It signals that...

MikeSpy

We formed a diamond bottom last week and had a false breakout to the downside that quickly turned bullish after it was revealed that Trump was just "trolling" when he mentioned wanting to fire Powell. Once we broke the soft 536 resistance we moved right to the downward trendline (drawn in yellow) hovered there briefly and then cracked through it. We ended last...

MikeSpy

Decided to just ignore all the noise and go back to the basics for this one. We got a classic ugly diamond bottom, a ton of volatility after a large price move followed by reduced volatility, some symmetry but there are bits that pop out of the pattern on both sides. Diamonds don't have to look perfect for them to be legit, this one is certainly no beauty and I...

MikeSpy

I forgot how that old saying went, but I knew its time for a good deal. My first tip off that we might be at a bottom was fear and greed sitting at a 4 on Friday. Into the weekend I saw Cramer and friends calling 1987 crash and historic doom headed for the economy. I saw a stat saying that this was the biggest crash since 2008, covid not withstanding. And...

MikeSpy

Every finance youtuber has been singing about an incoming market crash, recession and all sorts of doom for the past year during this unprecedented (very precedented?) bull run after yields inverted. Just going by the usual patterns and the technicals I would guess that the real pain wont start until April or May, that is based on how bonds uninverted in both...

MikeSpy

It's been a long time since I posted. My next move is Alto Neuroscience. What I am looking at is an inverse head and shoulder. I think a lot of people doubt this company because it's just another pharma company and see it as a risky trial phase play. But these guys have a trick up their sleeve, they are juicing their trials by looking for bio-markers that make...

MikeSpy

So I took the log scale of SPY and copied the pattern of our august correction and placed it on top of April, I then added the Ichimoku cloud and it looks like the pattern would be bouncing at support and resistance and bottom at a relatively reasonable point around 470. I expected a bounce at some point because we aren't going to go straight down, so I wanted to...

MikeSpy

Anyone who has gone to the gas station has seen the price trickling up every week, from looking like it was approaching $3 to now headed towards $5 in just the last few months. With tensions and uncertainty in the middle east and rising inflation combined with the fed deciding there will be no rate cuts anytime soon the market is ready to correct. I have been...

MikeSpy

Every guy on youtube is saying "its time to crash, recession mcdonalds prices, wendys surge price, tech layoffs, banking crisis, civil war, world war three, inflation is BACK, Look out below, The crash has just begun, we were never in a bear market, until NOW!" It is so tiresome. But this is what they are all looking for so I guess keep this in the back of your...

MikeSpy

Just thinking about what the fed will do in the upcoming 2 meetings, inflation is still sticky, I feel we get 2 meetings where there are no rate cuts and if the market looks shaky and inflation comes down I think that the June 10th meeting gives us the first cut. Usually following cuts we see recession, I am thinking and hoping it will be light and we can get...

MikeSpy

Bears are getting rekt, and then rekt, and then rekt, and then rekt, and then they see the catalyst... rekt... and another one? rekt! Is it their time though? US 2 year is the same place as it was in Nov 22 US dollar is where it was in December 22 Both up significantly from the December 13th fed meeting. Can the SNP500 finally show weakness? SUPER DUPER...

MikeSpy

Bulls have been laughing their way to the bank. Recently saw a political/finance streamer talk about how "The SNP500 is looking strong, inflation is down, we had a soft landing, I think now is a good time to buy" I get the feeling that is the general sentiment of the market, I think people have blinders on to the market risks. We saw some tech layoffs the past...

MikeSpy

All throughout this rally Bears have been calling for an inverse head and shoulders. We never got it and so many retail put buyers got absolutely REKT during the squeeze to 4600. At this point though it looks like all of our overbought signals are finally rolling over and turning bearish. We cracked the rising channel that we painted after the squeeze to 4500...

MikeSpy

Well the market has really stunned a lot of us bears, we were all calling for the inverse head and shoulders and we never got it, the market just kept rallying and rallying. Wouldn't it be funny if we got a an inverse h&s after all? I am seeing us as very overbought and am expecting that we may get some kind of a pull back or a sell off in the coming weeks,...

MikeSpy

Wojack was still broke, he was still living under the bridge, he had developed a mild case of gangrene but was able to move around using an old shopping cart and a broomstick that had been used to shoe him away from the Wendy's Dumpster. Wojak thought to himself "maybe I am rich now, Maybe Oxen has reached its all time high, Maybe it has finally gone to $1000...

MikeSpy

A lot of folks predicting an inverse head and shoulders got absolutely rekt on friday. Thursday marked the downswing and retail piled into puts. But the market squeezed them out. Then after hours Moodys hit the market with a downgrade. In the past this has lead to a 2-4% sell-off. The question is how soon can it happen? I decided to manifest the bearish dream,...