MikeSpy

MikeSpy

We touched the lows today and chopped back down multiple times in a back and forth Monday. In the end we closed at the high, a bullish sign. This comes off a bullish divergence on the technicals. I suspected that there was a lot of bearish greed coming into play and retail YOLOd into shorts and puts, this week will be a great opportunity to use them as liquidity...

MikeSpy

Right now it seems impossible. 440? We are going to 420! The Bears are strong and have ravaged the carcass of the market. Now is not the time to pile in on shorts in hope that more downside is yet to come. Now is not the time to feel that you missed the boat and to go all-in on the downside. Now is when gamblers and folks on wallstreetbets pour on the puts. A...

MikeSpy

The 3rd week of September is always known as the market crusher in pre-election years. Lets see some bullishness to round out September. We have a gap to fill and a trendline that needs to be retested. Bearishness is crazy right now "Oh my god interest rates aren't coming down!? Panic!" Was all this bullishness really just because we thought the printer was about...

MikeSpy

Well, I had to review my notes. I think we may be seeing a Wyckoff distribution Major players and company executives have been selling more this past month than they have the entire quarter. Regular insiders are purchasing these dips. This is somewhat of a disconnect, usually when executives and major funds are selling more heavily we see the regular insiders...

MikeSpy

FOMC will not be bullish. Rates will pause and the stock market will rise probably to 445. There will be talk of raising rates potentially in the future, inflation is rising, the fed has a job to do and they will get the inflation down to its 2% target. They will continue until the task is done. This will set it in on Thursday and the market will sell off after...

MikeSpy

Well we did try to climb back during the apple announcement and got a little juice leading into CPI, but it looks like Tuesday was not a pumper day but a sell off. Now we are forming a little bit of a potential channel, I decided to draw it just to see if the price will respect it. The middle line isn't really based on much, its just the same angle as the other...

MikeSpy

Bullish divergence on the hourly chart, not sure how much it matters, but we are certainly oversold.

MikeSpy

Well I have decided how I think September will go: I think we hit a temporary bottom today and Bulls will try to push us up, buy the dip FOMO is still on. I want to see us top out around 452-454 around Apple iPhone announcement and the new CPI numbers. Then I expect CPI will be too hot and the market will sell off to the max pain on Friday of 440. Following that...

MikeSpy

We filled the gap and today started to slide back down, I decided to take a look at all our previous bounces this year that resulted in a new high from a technical perspective and noticed something interesting. In this case the McLellan Oscillator which measures market breadth is showing that this rally is really fueled by some of the larger caps that are being...

MikeSpy

Wojak was still living under the bridge, the wind was strong, the rain poured over him, he had little to eat and little to drink, but thankfully he was able to collect the rain water in an old boot he had purchased from Bel Delphine back when he was an engineer. It was not the best drinking utensil but it was better than slurping from puddles or the river, which...

MikeSpy Updated 

Nvidia has been jumping and pumping with the AI that has been thumping. Watch out though, it may get to dumping. With SVB having issues I see a lot of tech worries especially in the crypto and startup space, NVDA gets a big boon from these industries as their products are great for the AI space and crypto space. I think the pump was mostly due to hype that is...

MikeSpy Updated 

Well today was bullish, we went up and a channel is starting to form... sort of. Something seems off. The bottom is just a little too sharp. I don't like the idea that we come down after a brutal sell off and then just recover, some people are looking for 4480 on friday and that could be the case if we just follow this channel upward, but looking at it, it...

MikeSpy

Put to call ratio is going up, market had a panic oversell on Friday with the Evergrande news. Turns out they were not bankrupt they were just filing for protection. Now I think the bad news is still to come, but with the Friday action of the oversell and re-adjustment upwards I think we are in for a bounce. We have some catalysts that may cause people to get...

MikeSpy

Just looking at the Amazon Chart, I haven't looked at it for almost a year at this point and ironically we are in the same spot. The drop that I expected once we stalled in resistance did play out; however, Amazon has been able to keep up strong performances and has found itself back in position of resistance. I do think this is strong resistance as it was just...

MikeSpy

Well It looks like we have begun the markdown phase, and have a bit of a tight wedge being formed on this downward movement. I think we may end up bouncing up again at some point unless the market totally falls through, but there usually is a buy the dip crowd when we head down after being at extreme greed so I would expect a rally sometime between 4460-4400....

MikeSpy

Wojak invested his life savings after Elon Musk said "Low-key Loki" and since then Wojak has lived under the bridge eating scraps of newspaper and rain water. Wojak checks the chart every day and watches it get lower and lower, its too bad Wojack bought in at the top, sometimes Wojak begs for money on the streets, and one time had enough to buy a Wendy's...

MikeSpy

It looks like SPY has formed a textbook example of the Wyckoff distribution. While we were at the most purchased level, almost cracking the March 2022 high and bulls getting ready to push for a breach of the all time high the market sold off heavily today. I believe just an hour before the sell off there was an article saying the DOW was at 13 consecutive winning...

MikeSpy

Well I have been fairly bear biased, and it has been costly since the bulls have been in complete control this year, the market is up almost 20% this year which is Bananas. I do think that we are in for a cool-off though because we are now at the March 2022 high, and from here the only place to go besides down for a re-test is the all time high. Are markets...