MikeSpy

MikeSpy

I am taking a more long-term look at where I see the index and at what prices I think would be too good an opportunity to pass up given the future interest rate hikes and unknowns with regards to oil prices & supply chains. I personally feel the 325-350 range represents a good outlook on the economy overall. It would represent an acknowledgement of the problems...

MikeSpy

Tesla had a tripple top on the most recent run up, it also made 3 attempts to cross the 200 MA and got knocked back under it 3 times. I think there is actually some chance that we sell off heavily next week. I don't think another stock split is going to encourage retail to pile into Tesla. "Fool me once shame on you... Fool me don't get fooled again".

MikeSpy

Yesterday was a wild one and gave me some pause, there was so much bullishness towards the end of the day we actually ended up having a false breakout to the upside that stalled right at the gap resistance around 420. In retrospect it is clear that the market was really giddy about something, probably the announcement about student loan forgiveness combined with...

MikeSpy

I tried to be as neutral as possible and drew lines everywhere I could find them. If we break 430 we can run up to 450. If we break 409 we can drop down to 390. There are a lot more lines above the current price than below it which makes me apprehensive.

MikeSpy

Amazon had a gap up after the last earnings report which honestly took me by surprise since they had very little growth despite their inflated PE value. Overall I think that the general market rally and the stock split may have contributed more than anything. I guess investors were simply thankful that Amazons numbers weren't declining. Anyway we saw the gap up...

MikeSpy

To me it looks pretty clear that we did top out this week. There were a couple attempts to push the price back towards the 200 MA but it just was not able to get there. We have the overhead resistance keeping us down and the top of the wedge that we bounced from. A ton of resistance is in this area & Oil is starting to creep back up in price, with winter in...

MikeSpy

Wow we really busted a move in the last month. I think it may be time for us to cool off now that we have reclaimed 60% of the losses from the all time high and the indicators are showing every sign of being overbought. We have this really wide ascending & broadening wedge that we have been riding up towards the top off for the last month. I have this drawn in...

MikeSpy Updated 

So Amazon was looking quite bearish after the last earnings report. Services & Products both down heavily. There hasn't really been a recovery and now that the growth has stalled I would expect that P/E of 59 to start dragging the company down. Personally I see us dropping either the middle of this channel or bottom depending on the earnings. If the earnings...

MikeSpy

SPY is looking bullish. Oil and Inflation are coming down. Things are gonna start looking good due to election season. We need bullish sentiment and good news and we will get plenty of it. This is short term. I think around 415-420 we will encounter heavy resistance and probably come down. Ill see again on the chart, but for now I think its Bull Time! Just my opinion

MikeSpy

I am currently calling SPY to bottom out in a few weeks around 355. Looking at the futures I am seeing us moving in a nice channel and it looks like we may fall through it. If we do we would end up going to around 350-355. This location lines up really nicely from our first correction down in September, I think it would make for a beautiful bottom. I would really...

MikeSpy

I saw this diamond shape forming. I am still holding my puts for 7/15 and am hoping we can drop a bit lower and at least test the bottom of this diamond shape. At that point I will probably aim to take some profit personally as this shape is starting to cause me some concern for my short strategy. TLDR: I am positioned for a downside break but if we break up I...

MikeSpy

We made it back into gap resistance and stalled just like last week. This looks like a potentially really good double-top opportunity and I am personally short with 380 puts for 7/15 and 370 puts for 7/22. The one thing to watch for is if bulls can keep the buying pressure up. If they can accumulate and keep in the resistance zone for a long period of time the...

MikeSpy Updated 

I drew some lines on the chart. The yellow one is from our drop in January which I made into a channel, price seems to be constrained in it for now. The purple lines represented the gap fill and where there was some resistance, It looks like we couldn't quite clear above it confidently and so we ended up crashing down well below it today. I think we will...

MikeSpy Updated 

Let the bulls try it. Many are swing trading this stuff and will take profit once we are no longer oversold. in my opinion the chart looks ugly, it would be very beautiful if it had some more candles on its downside. We just came down Hard. We need some cushion for our bullish runway. We cracked the overhead resistance today, But then were immediately pushed...

MikeSpy

We hit resistance in a big way around 396-397 this was right at gap from last week and we were rejected. This makes me feel like we are not yet ready to start climbing up. I plotted this resistance zone in the Yellow lines. We need to break up through there before we get moving. There is also that vertical resistance that is looming above which I have drawn in...

MikeSpy

Well it looks like the result was as expected. A 50 pt basis increase which caused the market to relax and "price in" the rate hike just like last time. Now we go back up. The timing of it is a bit sharper than last month. Previously we got a rate hike and needed to wait and entire month before the CPI told us that rates needed to rise faster than expected. This...

MikeSpy

It looks to me like we have firmly painted a head and shoulders top. This should be the end of the Covid Bubble. We are now going to unwind into a bumpy landing. I get the feeling May might actually be a decent month considering April has burned off almost all of the gains that we made from the last time Powell spoke. It seems almost too predictable but that...

MikeSpy

We ended up breaking into the 460s but It looks like the juice is starting to run out for the bulls. They may drag this on for a while still but the weekly is showing the pattern fairly clean when you look at where we closed. I feel April will continue its bearish trend down to 420s and that is where I have my PUTs targeting for 4/29. I am not adding much fluff...