MohamedElsodoody

MohamedElsodoody

In this post I will mention what price action to expect ahead after FOMC and Powell's testimony and for what reasons? FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES 1- " Powell dismissed the idea of 1970s-style price increases—higher than 10%—as "very, very unlikely." He's also got "a level of confidence" that those pressures will eventually come down". (Played down inflation fears) 2-...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

How the FOMC and and Powell's testify can affect the price? - The downtrend last week was supported mainly because of the Fed's HAWKISH tone, and other factors, if Powell's testify today signs for holding the interest rate of 0 for longer time (no hikes by the end of 2021 as some members offered in the last meeting), also if the Powell does not give any sign when...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

In this post I will mention how strong shall be the downtrend in price action according to the new fundamentals FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES 1- Germany warned it needed to keep up the pace to stave off the delta variant. 2- Italy wants more stimulus to get European growth back to pre pandemic levels, imposes quarantine on U.K. tourists in blow to economy. 3- Germany...

MohamedElsodoody

In this post I will mention what price action to expect ahead and for what reasons FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES 1- U.S. interest-rate-setters have begun a discussion about scaling back bond purchases, kind of. “You can think of this meeting as the talking-about-talking-about meeting, if you like,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference after...

MohamedElsodoody

In this post I will mention what to expect in the price action according to fundamentals and FED decisions ahead? FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1- U.S. retail sales still, the total value of sales was $620 billion, well above the almost $520 billion in FEB. before the pandemic. 2- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose last month thanks to elevated material costs and...

MohamedElsodoody

In this post ill mention the new price range, what supports the downtrend?, and at what price the downtrend may be capped, and for what reasons?. What supports the downtrend? 1- EU is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures if the U.K. fails to implement its post Brexit obligations. 2- U.S. Congress members agreed to $761.8 billion in new spending over 8...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned in my previous post, the economic recovery in the U.S. caused a failure to test the 1.23 in exchange rate, therefore there was a failure and the price hit the 1.2100 as a lower low last week, the negative release in the NFP and the rise in the hourly wage in U.S. had the market worrying one more time about inflation, and some had bets the price...

MohamedElsodoody

The high inflation in U.S. and the uncertainty of the Fed's speech (Dovish or Hawkish) had the biggest focus for a month. In this post ill explain as briefly as possible how the market has been reacting accordingly since May 13. - After the inflation reading in the macroeconomic calendar showed a rise of (4.2% above FED's 2% target) the Bearish market has been...

MohamedElsodoody

The price today has reacted to the negative release of the NFP data which was seen less than what was forecasted but better than previous, it ended with a bullish move to 1.2180 and reversed today's Bearish stance. Is the main trend turned to bullish? shall we expect a break of 1.2200 one more time? do the new fundamentals are leading to a main trend...

MohamedElsodoody

Breakout soon? How strong is it likely to to consolidate above the 1.2250 before the long awaited downtrend? What this price action show us? How the U.S. data can affect the direction? Thursday/Friday final days of volatility? IN THIS POST I WILL ANSWER ALL THESE QUESTIONS BUT FIRST LET ME MENTION THE NEW FUNDAMENTALS. FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES 1- EU passed 250...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned in previous ideas this week, despite the upbeat economic recovery in the U.S. the price is raising, in this post I will remind for what reason this is happening, and I will mention the new fundamentals and how they can affect the direction. FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES - EU will raise some 80 billion euros in bonds and billions more in bills to...

MohamedElsodoody

- As was mentioned in the previous two ideas this week, the approach of breaking above to 1.2250 targeting (1.2280-12300) was highly expected, not as a EUR real value, but as a fake out and a take profit move. - In this idea I will mention what is likely to expect according to the recent price action, but let me first mention some new fundamentals to take into...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned in the previous post, - The price action shall be BEARISH, but the dollar's appreciation is capped for only one reason which is the inflation combined with the easy monetary policy of the FED. - The market is likely to move to ( OVER VALUED ) uptrends that are VERY likely (would not hold and would keep facing rejections back to the 1.2200). -...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned in previous posts all the fundamentals now are backing the dollar's appreciation, and in this post before I explain why the price was rejected from 1.2132? and what shall be expected in the near term? I would like to add more fundamentals that shall push for more lower lows. FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES 1- Biden's proposal of the new 6 trillion dollar...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned before in previous posts this week there were many reasons to reverse the attempt to break above 1.2260 and alert to a reversal MORE fundamentals why the price shall break below 1.2150? 1- The variant first identified in India is spreading all over parts in England, the fact the puts EU at risk ( Brexit business between EU-England ) 2- ECB...

MohamedElsodoody

What is moving the market today? 1- There is an absence of Fundamental news ( means bearish continues ) 2- GFK Germany climate seen dropped ( against EU appreciation ) what is the bears target? CONSIDERING FORECASTS OF UPCOMING DATA 1- If the ECB speech hints to dovish which is highly expected would push the price for new lows 2- If U.S. data today results...

MohamedElsodoody

As we can see the price is moving back and forth in the last few hours but why to expect the uptrend might be capped and reverse direction to 1.2200 and below ? 1-Belarus-EU tensions put the the safety of commercial flights in EU at risk, and politically the sanctions applied from EU on Belarus is against EU upward momentum. 2-U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is in...

MohamedElsodoody

As was mentioned yesterday there is no clear trend in the market and the highest prospect that we would see range market in the next week or 2 weeks Reasons the price is aiming to breakout? 1- FED being dovish at the moment. 2- All FED meetings remind the market that the inflation might grow more this year and next. 3- EU reopening. 4- Germany upbeat IFO climate...