MonkeyMagic

MonkeyMagic

My count of the last impulse was invalidated, this time it looks like the top of larger wave 1 is complete and wave 2 is underway with a zigzag correction.

MonkeyMagic Updated 

Selling has been strong, and has all but broken previous trend line. With the end of the tax year approaching I think there is still more selling to come. There is another trend line (1), strong horizontal resistance (2) and a bearish trend line (3) all crossing at the 78.6% fib level for BTCUSD all time. I think we are certainly headed for $4,200 or so, and I...

MonkeyMagic

50 day moving average has crossed the 200 day. Lower lows expected. www.investopedia.com

MonkeyMagic Updated 

Looking at the yellow converging trend lines, we might be reaching a crunch point soon. Bitcoin looks set to have another go at breaking the declining trend line before long, but even if it breaks upwards there can still be the possibility of a deeper decline as marked by the red ABC. Trading volume is still strong, and if we see a spike as strong as we did at...

MonkeyMagic

Verge climbed powerfully out of its hole, but with a lot of people ready to drop their heavy bags once a better price was reached I think wave 1 will retrace deeply back to wave 4 of the previous sub waves of wave 1.

MonkeyMagic

Wave count for Trons recent revival.

MonkeyMagic Updated 

XVGBTC has now retraced nearly to 0.786 fib line, following an ABCDE style triangle correction. As the apex of the triangle gets closer, the chances of a break increases. A break is by no means certain, be aware that the lack of any real volume could see XVGBTC trickle past the apex and carry on going sideways for an unknown time before the impulse begins.

MonkeyMagic

BTCUSD could have been following a triangle (ABCDE) correction since the all time high. A triangle correction can have one of the sub waves trace a complex correction, and in this case the first wave can be viewed as another smaller triangle marked in red lines (This wave *could* also be counted as a zigzag or a double zigzag). Then the remaining BCDE waves can...

MonkeyMagic Updated 

As per my previous post - B wave went higher than my first projection and does not look convincingly impulsive to be considered a new wave up. Since the B wave ends higher than originally thought, then the C wave will end higher than originally thought. If we consider the height of the C wave to be the same as the height of the A wave then that would finish...

MonkeyMagic Updated 

50 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA indicating a new trend. My count puts us on wave 4, which could be a triangle ABCDE correction. Wave 5 would follow and then larger wave 2 correction after that.

MonkeyMagic Updated 

The recent 5 waves down have held a tight channel, typical of a downwards impulse. If this is the correct count, then a zigzag (5-3-5) correction is likely. I will be looking to see if the next move up looks to be made of 3 waves. This would bring retracement back to the 0.786 fib level, not unusual for a wave 2. The low would likely create a bull wick on the...

MonkeyMagic

The downward sloping yellow resistance long term trend line will prove a tough barrier on this impulse, either a powerful (green) 3rd wave or an even more powerful 5th wave could break the trend.

MonkeyMagic

A different count if we consider the 5th impulse wave to be truncated. The zigzag correction looks a little more classic in this scenario. My projected target remains the same, a 0.786 retracement to $7,200 or so. I believe BTCUSD will bounce of this level in the short term, but there are larger possible patterns in play here so I will be considering the medium...

MonkeyMagic

I have adjusted my view and believe the wave 2 correction is still in progress. Multiple patterns are all indicating a 0.786 retracement is likely. We have the double top, the bear flag that has formed (blue lines), and the elliot wave count all telling us that the target low is likely to be around $7,200

MonkeyMagic

Just for fun, lets see how close the price follows this path

MonkeyMagic

I feel obliged to try to explain the recent sudden downwards move that I admit caught me off guard when I was expecting a smaller correction from what appeared to be wave 1 of 3. I was unable to decide previously if the most recent impulse was a truncated wave 5 of the larger green wave 1, or if it was wave 1 of the larger green wave 3. If it was wave 1 of green...

MonkeyMagic Updated 

As I projected my recent Elliot waves I was struck by how similar the next ascent will be to the descent from the all time high. BTCUSD will be forming a mirror image of the all time high correction if my waves prove accurate. This should not necessarily be surprising as the all time high correction established various levels of strong support and resistance that...

MonkeyMagic Updated 

I have adjusted my count for BTCUSD. I now believe with the rising wedge pattern, and the projected length of wave 5 equal to wave 1, that the top of this 5 wave impulse has nearly been reached. I anticipate that the blue support line that has been resistance for so long will hold for the correction, putting this larger wave 2 retracement in the area of the...