Moshkelgosha

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In September, we are going to have 4 major events that will lead to huge volatility! September 8: Chair Jerome H. Powell At the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference September 13: Inflation rate Core inflation CPI September 16: Quadruple Witching: refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and...

Moshkelgosha

These similarities between 2 charts are just my observations: 1- The past 3 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1987-1990 for NI225: 2- The past 14 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1975-1990 for NI225: 3- The past 50 years of NASDAQ100 vs 1950-1990 for NI225: This observation is raising the probability that we may have a long way to go to declare the market bottom..! Best,

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What Is an Island Reversal? An island reversal is a price pattern on bar charts or candlestick charts that, on a daily chart, features a grouping of days separated on either side by gaps in the price action. This pattern suggests that prices may reverse whatever trend they are currently exhibiting, whether from upward to downward or from downward to upward....

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Bear Market Rally, Suckers Rally, Dead Cat Bounce, Bull trap, Whipsaw, Pullback,and Mean Reversion are all examples of counter trend moves. They all have common features: - They are all countertrend moves. - Their duration is shorter than the main trend. - They could be faster and more volatile. - They are not supported by fundamental changes Bear market rallies...

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A comparison between the Unemployment rate and S&P500 performance shows a massive layoff era is ahead..! Soon people will realize the meaning of what J Powell said in the Jackson hole symposium: " There will be pain for families and businesses" Best,

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What Is the Head and Shoulders Pattern? A head and shoulders pattern is a technical indicator with a chart pattern of three peaks, where the outer two are close in height, and the middle is the highest. A head and shoulders pattern—considered one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns—is a chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. An...

Moshkelgosha

I published an analysis of 7 Semiconductor and their ETF on August 29th (for Patrons), I will share it publicly here: 8 out of 8 positions are in the profit now! The boat has started sailing...

Moshkelgosha

Wyckoff's stock selection process always included an analysis of comparative strength. To identify candidates for long positions, he looked for stocks or industries that were outperforming the market, both during trends and within trading ranges. In short positions, he looked for underperformers. Therefore, he conducted his comparative strength analysis between a...

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On the left side, You see a Cup and Handle pattern which is one of the most profit-making patterns in the market, while on the right side you see a Double Top which indicates the probability of lower prices in the coming days! Which one would you pick? in which you will put your money? Let's look at the volume and see if it could help us: A: In a cup and handle...

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It is always ended with a long upper shadow: GME: AMC: This could be the end of the squeeze, the only question is if there will be a retest or not???

Moshkelgosha

This is a review of my published trade ideas on August 5th: SOXS: +25% in 3 days! SQQQ: +7% SARK:+6% A successful trader studies human nature and does the opposite of what the general public does. (William Delbert Gann) While so many hope for things to happen, I try to back my decisions based on Data and models..! Best,

Moshkelgosha

NASDAQ behavior is very similar to March-June 2008 when NASDAQ bounced back 23% in less than 3 months and then a 50% collapse happened! I recognized this similarity as early as March 15, 2022: If you think in an overheating economy like this, the market will survive Quantitative Tightening, read this post: Margin data has a lot to say about the...

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Do not forget we are talking about the most traded stock in the market in the past 30 months..! A- Today's volume is 35% more than yesterday's, B- Today's volume is 20% more than the last 2 weeks' average! C- Today's volume is bigger than all trading days post FOMC except one! D- Today's candle is bigger than all the candles after July's FOMC! Now, you tell me...

Moshkelgosha

I remember last month's forecasts of Goldman Sacks for a lower expectations Inflation rate, but the actual number was hotter than expected and also 1.5x of the average of the past 24 months..! In 2 days, CPI data will be out (August 10), and with the current momentum, we should not expect a much lower number for July. The consensus for the July Inflation rate is...

Moshkelgosha

The S&P sectors, or Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), organize companies based on their primary business activities. Investors can use the sectors to isolate stocks of specific interest or to build a diversified portfolio. The order of the 11 sectors based on size is as follows: Information Technology, Health Care, Financials, Consumer Discretionary,...

Moshkelgosha

In the second half of July, DXY mean reversion lead to higher prices across the board, Stock market, crypto, and gold experienced a sharp move! But it looks like DXY responded to EMA 50 and made a Bullish engulfing pattern, and other markets are pivoting. In the coming days, higher DXY could drag down everything once again! Best,

Moshkelgosha

It was March 7th when I published my first VLO analysis: I revised my target price to 140 on April 26: then VLO went up to 148 +84% in less than 100 days..! Now you see the highest ever revenue and learning per share, but the price is 25% below its All time high??? Why? Maybe the best answer is provided by George Soros: The reality is that...

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Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s, rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market...