Moshkelgosha

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This week: 1- Upper border of a downward regression channel..! 2- AB=CD harmonic pattern target 945 3-Resistance :935-950 Conclusion: Moving toward 950 and correct to 850. After that: It is possible to move toward 1200 once again..! Tesla has been and will be full of surprises..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

After a sharp 107% move in 67 trading days, oil price experienced a 28% decline and now is back at 50EMA..! This move has other interesting features as well: 1- Back to the upper border of the broadening pattern: 2- Back to the price action support zone : 3- Retracement to 50% Fibo: 4- AB = BC correction pattern: And the real reason behind the...

Moshkelgosha

A quiz is usually a short test and often doesn't have a huge impact on your grades as a test has. But this one could have a huge impact on your portfolio..! I provide the chart and the cheat sheet. For more help you can look at my previous analysis as well: or or You like to learn more, read this article: www.investopedia.com Question: How you...

Moshkelgosha

Technical: breaking above 52 weeks high will open a new horizon for further increase in price..! Fundamental: Crack spread is now twice more than average of the Q4,2021..! I am confident Valero will make more money in Q1 2022 than all four quarters of 2021 combined. there will be a huge gap in price after the next earnings..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

Tuttle Capital did a great performance of +102% since November 9th, 2021..! This result will shine more when you compare it to the -19.58% return of NASDAQ 100 in the same timeframe..! I believe after a slight pullback, it will be among the winners of 2022..! Reading this could be fun: At the Dynasty Financial Partners' 2021 Investment Forum, Wood shared her...

Moshkelgosha

Let's look at the mechanism that leads to this phenomenon 1-Short Covering Trades 2- Short Squeeze + Gama Squeeze just before Quadruple Witch, it was top rank on Wallstreet Bets in this trading week. 3- Market Makers: Max Pain: 113 which means market makers are the winner of this game..! Do not forget: A: BABA is still 65% away from its all-time high..! B:...

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It seems Oil and Gold listened to the FED's chair speech yesterday and find their support ..! History showed during the high inflation era, Energy and Gold outperformed..! OIL: Higher oil prices contribute to inflation directly and by increasing the cost of inputs. There was a strong correlation between inflation and oil prices during the 1970s. Oil's...

Moshkelgosha

After successfully predicting a 10-15% decline in Russell 2000 now we need to look at it once again..! I think the top of the orange box could be a strong resistance level and the relief rally will be ended there..! Also, this could be the SOW part of Wyckoff model: Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor,...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

This is NIO weekly chart which clearly shows the long-term outlook! with the current trend, 20-15 could be possible in the next few months! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..! A comparison between 2008 & 2022: A Comparison between 2000 & 2022: My Observation: 1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%. 2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce...

Moshkelgosha

As you can see in the weekly charts Gold has made a bearish bat pattern and has reached the first target..! Further correction in the high inflation era is less likely..! do not count on the 2nd and 3rd targets..! Always consider the probability of something happening, and Keep in mind nothing is impossible in the market!!! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha...

Moshkelgosha

The collapse of BABA is twice as big as Evergrande's 300 Billion dollars debt crisis..! I believe no one could imagine BABA at 73 dollars a share, but it happened! Recommendation at these prices is really hard..! If you hold these could be the risks: - Chinese stock delist from US market - Further decline to 58 or lower So adding to your position when all the...

Moshkelgosha

What Is a Crack Spread? A crack spread refers to the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. A crack spread is the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. The price of a barrel of crude oil and the prices of the different products derived...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

I believe this process will not end soon, do not try to catch a falling Chinese knife..! Charlie Munger has tried this with BABA and I do not think he is happy with his decision! Consider this: What would happen if China and Taiwan situation escalate..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified...

Moshkelgosha

Most of Cathie Wood's followers were playing in the kindergarten or elementary school playground when she underperform the market in 2008. According to Alliance Bernstein documents, she had -46.72% net return and -45.12% pure gross return in 2008..! Interestingly, Positive alpha over every annualized time period (10-year alpha: 2.4%) Cathie Wood on her way to...

Moshkelgosha

This chart shows the rate of change in the past 3 months..! The closet market performance in 3 months was Oct-Dec 2018 with a -17% return..! The question is how would it continue? Similar to 2008? or 2000? the worst 3-month performance was -38.53 Sep-Nov 2000 and the second-worst was -36.68 Sep-Nov 2008, the 3rd on so far is Jan-March 2022. What would be your...

Moshkelgosha

I am not like those clowns who use rocketships and invite you to the Moon, But, I warn you from getting whipped out, and I started doing this many months ago..! the gates of recession will be open sooner or later..! Macroeconomy in simple words: Higher inflation, Higher rates, lower spending will lead to a Recession..! If you have doubt review these (My...

Moshkelgosha

let's review the analysis I published publicly in the past 10 days and asked people to share some profits with Ukrainian refugees! 1- VLO: +8.76% 2-SVX:+8.28% 3- SLB:+11.48% 4- XOM:+2.22% 5- MPC: +2.17% 6- COP:0 neutral 7- PSX:-3.2% 8- WFC: Stop reaced-3-5% 9- BABA: stop reached!-3-5% 10- SARK: Target reached +15.7% 11-...