Moshkelgosha

Moshkelgosha Updated 

If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..! A comparison between 2008 & 2022: A Comparison between 2000 & 2022: My Observation: 1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%. 2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce...

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As you can see in the weekly charts Gold has made a bearish bat pattern and has reached the first target..! Further correction in the high inflation era is less likely..! do not count on the 2nd and 3rd targets..! Always consider the probability of something happening, and Keep in mind nothing is impossible in the market!!! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha...

Moshkelgosha

The collapse of BABA is twice as big as Evergrande's 300 Billion dollars debt crisis..! I believe no one could imagine BABA at 73 dollars a share, but it happened! Recommendation at these prices is really hard..! If you hold these could be the risks: - Chinese stock delist from US market - Further decline to 58 or lower So adding to your position when all the...

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What Is a Crack Spread? A crack spread refers to the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. A crack spread is the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. The price of a barrel of crude oil and the prices of the different products derived...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

I believe this process will not end soon, do not try to catch a falling Chinese knife..! Charlie Munger has tried this with BABA and I do not think he is happy with his decision! Consider this: What would happen if China and Taiwan situation escalate..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified...

Moshkelgosha

Most of Cathie Wood's followers were playing in the kindergarten or elementary school playground when she underperform the market in 2008. According to Alliance Bernstein documents, she had -46.72% net return and -45.12% pure gross return in 2008..! Interestingly, Positive alpha over every annualized time period (10-year alpha: 2.4%) Cathie Wood on her way to...

Moshkelgosha

This chart shows the rate of change in the past 3 months..! The closet market performance in 3 months was Oct-Dec 2018 with a -17% return..! The question is how would it continue? Similar to 2008? or 2000? the worst 3-month performance was -38.53 Sep-Nov 2000 and the second-worst was -36.68 Sep-Nov 2008, the 3rd on so far is Jan-March 2022. What would be your...

Moshkelgosha

I am not like those clowns who use rocketships and invite you to the Moon, But, I warn you from getting whipped out, and I started doing this many months ago..! the gates of recession will be open sooner or later..! Macroeconomy in simple words: Higher inflation, Higher rates, lower spending will lead to a Recession..! If you have doubt review these (My...

Moshkelgosha

let's review the analysis I published publicly in the past 10 days and asked people to share some profits with Ukrainian refugees! 1- VLO: +8.76% 2-SVX:+8.28% 3- SLB:+11.48% 4- XOM:+2.22% 5- MPC: +2.17% 6- COP:0 neutral 7- PSX:-3.2% 8- WFC: Stop reaced-3-5% 9- BABA: stop reached!-3-5% 10- SARK: Target reached +15.7% 11-...

Moshkelgosha

When I published my analysis on March 7th, the price was 86-87..! I mentioned a 46% opportunity in less than 6 months..! 2 Trading days after that, Bank of America increase its price target for Valero from 107 to 135..! I believe there will be an exceptional Q1 earning at the end of April..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified...

Moshkelgosha

All traders have noticed the change in the market behavior in 2022..! This a market like you never have seen before..! This is the second-worst start of the year for US equities in 123 years. For context, the -11.9% drop in the first 44 trading days in 2022 is only rivaled by the 1920 Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis. (MacroAlf, Author of The...

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Being on the wrong side of the equation will cost you a lot..! Cathie Wood's performance history in 2008 showed that..! I think she has a high chance to break her -48% (negative) return in 2008, after 14 years..! Why? in the first 3 months of 2022, her flagship is down 35%..! Forecast: ARK invest will not survive 2022..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha...

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The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff and has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century, including 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average, usually the 50-day, crosses below its long-term moving...

Moshkelgosha

Year-over-year (YOY) is a method of evaluating two or more measured events to compare the results at one period with those of a comparable period on an annualized basis. (Investopedia) The United States Inflation Rate YoY Food (14% of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4%), and services fewer energy services...

Moshkelgosha Updated 

This will be the start of a new trend in the energy sector..! In 2022 EV makers has no chance to beat these old dogs..! Do not forget at the right time even Lumber had beat Tesla's performance..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a...

Moshkelgosha

Today's Oil sell-off decreased its performance from 60% to 43% YTD..! But Crack Spread increased to 202% and it is well above the average of 2021..! more than double..! Those who know this industry know what I am talking about..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an...

Moshkelgosha

The answer is No..! Why? because it is in a consolidation zone, and the trend before it was bearish..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for...

Moshkelgosha

Is this Start of a new bullish trend? No, Is bitcoin in a consolidation pattern? Yes, Which scenario is more probable? Fluctuating in the consolidation zone..! Should I open a trad? No, Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m...