Moshkelgosha

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No 2 Consecutive positive trading days for S&P500 and NASDAQ100 in August 2023, after we had the best rally in the first 7 months of the year! V-shape corrections (reversal) are rare, but at this point, I think it is good to be considered in our probabilistic calculations! 16 trading days without 2 positive days in a row for NASDAQ100 is the longest period in the...

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a former options trader and risk analyst who is now a best-selling author and essayist. He is known for his work on black swan events, randomness, and antifragility. Taleb has written about mean reversion in several of his books, including Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. He argues that mean reversion is a statistical phenomenon...

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Logarithmic and normal (linear) charts are two different types of charts used to represent data in various fields, such as science, finance, engineering, and more. They differ in how they handle the scaling of the vertical (Y) axis. Let's explore each type of chart: 1. **Logarithmic Chart**: A logarithmic chart uses a logarithmic scale on one or both axes. The...

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John Kelly was a physicist and mathematician who worked for Bell Labs. He is best known for his work on information theory, which he applied to the field of finance. Kelly's formula, which is used to calculate the optimal bet size in a gambling game, is still used by quantitative traders today. Claude Shannon was a mathematician and electrical engineer who is...

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A head and shoulders pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that is formed by three peaks, with the middle peak being the highest. The two outer peaks are called the shoulders, and the middle peak is called the head. The pattern is considered to be a bearish reversal pattern, meaning that it signals a change from an uptrend to a downtrend. The head and...

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This was published yesterday 30 mins before market closure! QQQ: SPY: IWM: ARKK: AAPL: MSFT: GOOG: AMZN: META: TSLA: AMD: NVDA: XOM: F: AAL: BABA: BAC: NFLX: AMC: MRNA:

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In the past 2 years, 5 EV companies have lost 800 billion dollars of their market cap! Today, the aggregate market cap of the top 60 companies is $2.229 T. Long-term investors in TSLA, NIO, RIVN, LCID, and XPEV have lost money equal to Toyota, Porsche, BYD, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Ford, and Ferrari combined! The market always punishes people for...

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This is a post to evaluate both sides of the same coin! Make your comment and review it in 4 weeks! I am Bearish! and my target is the red one!

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A whipsaw chart pattern is a type of price action that occurs when a security's price moves sharply in one direction, then quickly reverses and moves in the opposite direction. This can be a frustrating pattern for traders, as it can lead to losses if they enter or exit a trade at the wrong time. Whipsaw patterns are most common in volatile markets, where prices...

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The minimax strategy is a decision rule used in game theory, decision theory, artificial intelligence, statistics, and philosophy for minimizing the possible loss for a worst-case (maximum loss) scenario. When dealing with gains, it is referred to as "maximin" – to maximize the minimum gain. In a zero-sum game, where one player's gain is the other player's loss,...

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So far, NASDAQ is down more than 4% in August 2023. This is important because we did not have any correction of more than 9% in 2023. I have a watchlist (100 Tickers) that tracks the top 100 most traded assets out of +12000 tradable tickers! These 100 tickers usually have +51% of the dollar value of all trades, while they are less than 1% of all tradable...

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TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is the world's largest contract chipmaker. It is headquartered in Taiwan, and it relies on the island for its supply of semiconductor chips. If China were to attack Taiwan, it would have a significant impact on TSMC. The company would likely see its profits decline, and its share price would likely fall. In...

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The lower high lower low pattern is a powerful tool that can be used to identify potential reversals in the trend and to enter short trades. A lower high lower low pattern is a technical analysis pattern that indicates a bearish trend. It is formed when the price of an asset makes a series of lower highs and lower lows. This pattern can be used to identify...

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The price correlation between AFRM and UPST is 0.73, meaning the two stocks tend to move in the same direction. This is not surprising, as both companies are in the same industry (digital lending) and have similar business models. However, it is important to note that correlation does not equal causation, and there are other factors that could be affecting the...

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Apple Pay has been gaining market share at PayPal's expense. In 2022, Apple Pay processed $90 billion in transactions, while PayPal processed $275 billion. This trend is likely to continue in the future, as more and more people adopt Apple devices and use Apple Pay. PayPal is aware of the threat posed by Apple Pay, and it has been taking steps to counter it. For...

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After a 61% correction and a 59% rebound, now Chinese big techs are getting out of consolidation after 22 weeks and breaking above the resistance line at the same time with a +35% above-average weekly volume! August could be a very fantastic month for the Chinese big cap!

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Instructions: This Forecast is based on statistical models and real range could be different. Risks of Deviation from the Forecast Model: Certain situations may increase the risk of deviation from the forecast model: - Earnings - Important news like FOMC, Interest rate, CPI,Job data..etc.

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You can use different trading models and strategies and give them a score, and then use the summation score as a trading model. Let's do this for NASDAQ:MSFT and compare 10 different models and give a score of +1 score for bullish, 0 for neutral, and -1 for bearish. Elliott wave: -1 Wyckoff:0 Mean version:0 Regression Channel:-1 Random Walk...