Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural_Gas_Trader

The protect profits price has been broken, if you haven't done so already you should be looking at bearish positions. The green and orange lines have not been modified since the original chart earlier this week. Natural gas has strength when it rallies but is not able to hold on to the gains. The front month contract has been stronger then the following months...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas rallied significantly, 13% from Friday close to Monday high. Because of that a pullback is not surprising. The consolidation is not as tight as I would have liked to see. The low of the consolidation can be used as a potential stop to lock in gains. Red and blue lines we'll keep an eye on once we see direction tomorrow. The gap should be considered...

Natural_Gas_Trader

For reference only, UGAZ is not even tracking the front month right now. This was the best way I could find to show the point I am trying to make. UGAZ should NEVER be held long term.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas continues to be very volatile, we must remain open minded and cautious. These are the scenarios I will be watching for this week.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural Gas Volatility

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural Gas Price Increases

Natural_Gas_Trader

If there is deep consolidation with $2.00 not providing support. If $2.00 breaks there could be a fast decline as stop losses trigger. This scenario is the more volatile of scenarios I will cover Natural gas has already achieved the short term price targets discussed in the 2020 Bull Rally video. www.youtube.com

Natural_Gas_Trader

Bullish scenario with brief tight consolidations. Price target would be on the high end of targets discussed in 2020 Bull Rally video. www.youtube.com

Natural_Gas_Trader

This scenario assumes $2.00 becomes support. Price target is a double top up to $2.30 as discussed in the 2020 Bull Rally video. www.youtube.com

Natural_Gas_Trader

Updated price target for charts discussed in 2020 Bull Rally video series www.youtube.com Will be publishing individual chart of the 3 scenarios shown.

Natural_Gas_Trader

The new high on May 1 has made this a neutral cycle. The cycle is approximately halfway with time to still become a bullish cycle. Still very possible there are large price swings with $1.70 being a likely point for the next higher low if this fails to break $2.00 If it breaks above $2.00 there are 2 main possibilities I'll be watching for. I have shown the first...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Comparison to show UNG decay due to contango.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Comparison to show the importance of not holding UGAZ long term.

Natural_Gas_Trader

The natural gas weekly cycle is typical about 26 weeks consisting of 3 daily cycles. A bullish weekly cycle will likely consist of 2 bullish daily cycle and 1 bearish daily cycle. It is possible for the weekly cycle to have 3 bullish cycle, it is more likely that would be the spring/summer cycle than the fall/winter cycle though. It is likely the last daily...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Daily cycle is expected to be bullish, bullish cycles usually peak later in the cycle. Daily cycle low is expected around May 29. Bullish price target depending on strength will be a high of $2.10-2.30 and cycle low of $2.00-$2.20 If this cycle turns bearish, bearish cycles typically peak sooner with a longer decline. We have been seeing very volatile price...

Natural_Gas_Trader

With the confirmation of the bullish daily cycle it is likely April 2 was the weekly cycle low.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas daily cycle low was on April 2. Initial rally was very strong but due to the size of the pullback must remain cautious. Due to the current market conditions downside is still possible. If there is continuation above $1.92 it is likely signalling a longer term bull rally is starting. Video discussing long term rally here - youtu.be See charts below for...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas has run substantially and looks like consolidation has started. How it consolidates is important for determining if it will start a bullish cycle. This is to show structure only, not prices levels. With such a large run it would not be surprising to see a large retracement before continuing higher. For this to be a bullish cycle it must break the...