Here is a view as an alternative to my first chart ... If we do not see a closing price of $ 9771 on a daily basis, then 0.62% fib would be conceivable, which at the same time would correspond, roughly, to the distance of the black A. I can well imagine that there may be a monthly low in March before it comes to further course recovery.
since october 2016, a clear diagonal has emerged, which has established itself as a dominant and effective support ... as long as that is not broken, we can expect new year high in the region between 1.48 and 1.4880. only a clear break of the rising supporting diagonal will cancel that view