NewThoughtCrypto

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: Cycle Top Price: Between 123K (min.) and 144K (max.) Cycle Top Time: Between mid-March and early April. Bitcoin Cycle Top Price: Bitcoin Primary Count: Currently, Bitcoin is in the final stages of Primary Wave 5. The price has already reached the 1:1 Fibonacci extension and will likely extend higher....

NewThoughtCrypto

Let me begin with a caveat: a sample size of five is hardly enough to be statistically accurate. Regardless, this cycle analysis aligns with my Gann analysis and the Primary EW count. My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend. Supporting Evidence: Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made...

NewThoughtCrypto

Before I begin, let’s outline the facts: 1. Bitcoin has been in an uptrend since November of 2021. 2. Bitcoin completed the four primary waves, and it is in primary wave 5. 3. Bitcoin’s price surpassed the typical target for a fifth wave, which is the 0.618 Fib Extension. I conclude that the odds of a trend reversal are higher than the odds of a...

NewThoughtCrypto

1. Market Structure: 1.1 HTF Analysis: Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024. Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times. “The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different. Bias: Short. Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S. 1.2 LTF...

NewThoughtCrypto

1. Market Structure: 1.1 HTF Analysis: Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024. Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times. “The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different. Bias: Short. Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S. 1.2 LTF...

NewThoughtCrypto

Is Bitcoin Bullish? The controversy in the crypto market between the “bulls” and the “bears” is at a peak. The issue seems to be the supposed effect of the latest rate cut. Can rate cuts reverse the downtrend? This flour has already been grounded, and nothing I say or do will change anyone’s opinion. I aim to present an objective measure based on Price and not...

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: The prevailing concept in CT is that once the Fed begins a QE cycle, prices of financial assets immediately shoot up. The data from two previous cycles tell a different story. The market doesn’t immediately react to rate cuts, if at all. It is after the rate cuts ended that the uptrend begins. 2007/2008 Rate Cut Cycle: Based on historical data from 2007...

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K. After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a...

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: My bias remains bearish. According to my analysis, Bitcoin is in a complex WXYXZ correction. Ultimately, this correction will lead Bitcoin to lower prices of as low as 45K, possibly lower. However, all hope is not lost for the bulls. The possibility of a bullish continuation exists under the following conditions: 1. Bitcoin must make an HH above 65K. 2....

NewThoughtCrypto

Two scenarios for Bitcoin. Both options will result in lower prices in the short term. However, one is bullish, the other is bearish: My view is that the correction period is not over. I am intellectually honest enough to entertain both options, but I must be truthful with myself and you: I don’t think the Bull’s time has come. TLDR: The bulls have a chance...

NewThoughtCrypto

The AB=CD pattern is a four-point price harmonic, which involves a partial retracement of the initial price segment, followed by an equidistant move from the completion of the pullback. Not every impulse and retracement form an ABCD Pattern. I use it under two conditions: 1. AB is an Impulsive move. 2. Sharp retracement up followed by a sharp move down. Use...

NewThoughtCrypto

The AB=CD pattern is a four-point price harmonic, which involves a partial retracement of the initial price segment, followed by an equidistant move from the completion of the pullback. Not every impulse and retracement form an ABCD Pattern. I use it under two conditions: 1. AB is an Impulsive move. 2. Sharp retracement up followed by a sharp move down. Use...

NewThoughtCrypto

This review will focus on four issues: 1. When is the bottom? 2. At what price? 3. If we make a definitive bottom, will a fresh upward impulse follow? Or is it just a relief rally? 4. What is the likely target to the upside? TLDR: • The trading week beginning on August 19th will likely be a substantial low, followed by a rally. The bottom will likely be after...

NewThoughtCrypto

When a partner cheats, the spouse is the last to know. Could the “Composite Man” is cheating, and we don’t realize it yet? Let’s look at the evidence. “Facts Not Feelings.” 1. A complete Wyckoff distribution pattern. 2. M.S. confirms we are in a downtrend. So, why is everyone still expecting an uptrend? 1. Traders and investors are relying on historical...

NewThoughtCrypto

NTC Bitcoin Weekly Analysis for August 10th – August 17th: TLDR: • The market structure remains bearish, and the bias remains to the downside. • Should bitcoin pull back to make a higher low or make a higher high, the bias may change to bullish. Weekly Chart: Bitcoin is still moving inside the Descending, Broadening Wedge. Last week, Bitcoin reached a lower...

NewThoughtCrypto Updated 

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin has been in a cycle Wave 4 correction between March 13th and July 5th. The correction took the shape of an Expanding Triangle in five waves. Since July 5th, Bitcoin has completed or almost completed wave 1 of 5. This wave 1 is an extended leading diagonal. Wave 1 completed the minimum requirements. However, it may extend even higher to...

NewThoughtCrypto

Purpose: 1. To aid you in determining a TP target for short positions. 2. Avoid loss by entering a long position prematurely. 3. To point out a possible buyback Zone Description: Ethereum formed an M pattern. This pattern satisfies the initial requirements of a Bullish Bat Formation, which are as follows: 1. Mandatory 50% B-point retracement of the XA...

NewThoughtCrypto

My analysis indicates that Bitcoin is meticulously forming a Bullish Bat Pattern, with a target between 42.5K and 44.3K. XA Leg: The X point begins the impulse wave at 38.55K on January 23rd. The A point terminated at the ATH, 73.77K, on March 13th. AB Leg: The B point is at the 56.55K Low on April 30th. This price is slightly above the 0.5 retracement, the...