NewThoughtCrypto

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: The prevailing concept in CT is that once the Fed begins a QE cycle, prices of financial assets immediately shoot up. The data from two previous cycles tell a different story. The market doesn’t immediately react to rate cuts, if at all. It is after the rate cuts ended that the uptrend begins. 2007/2008 Rate Cut Cycle: Based on historical data from 2007...

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K. After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a...

NewThoughtCrypto

TLDR: My bias remains bearish. According to my analysis, Bitcoin is in a complex WXYXZ correction. Ultimately, this correction will lead Bitcoin to lower prices of as low as 45K, possibly lower. However, all hope is not lost for the bulls. The possibility of a bullish continuation exists under the following conditions: 1. Bitcoin must make an HH above 65K. 2....

NewThoughtCrypto

Two scenarios for Bitcoin. Both options will result in lower prices in the short term. However, one is bullish, the other is bearish: My view is that the correction period is not over. I am intellectually honest enough to entertain both options, but I must be truthful with myself and you: I don’t think the Bull’s time has come. TLDR: The bulls have a chance...

NewThoughtCrypto

The AB=CD pattern is a four-point price harmonic, which involves a partial retracement of the initial price segment, followed by an equidistant move from the completion of the pullback. Not every impulse and retracement form an ABCD Pattern. I use it under two conditions: 1. AB is an Impulsive move. 2. Sharp retracement up followed by a sharp move down. Use...

NewThoughtCrypto

The AB=CD pattern is a four-point price harmonic, which involves a partial retracement of the initial price segment, followed by an equidistant move from the completion of the pullback. Not every impulse and retracement form an ABCD Pattern. I use it under two conditions: 1. AB is an Impulsive move. 2. Sharp retracement up followed by a sharp move down. Use...

NewThoughtCrypto

This review will focus on four issues: 1. When is the bottom? 2. At what price? 3. If we make a definitive bottom, will a fresh upward impulse follow? Or is it just a relief rally? 4. What is the likely target to the upside? TLDR: • The trading week beginning on August 19th will likely be a substantial low, followed by a rally. The bottom will likely be after...

NewThoughtCrypto

When a partner cheats, the spouse is the last to know. Could the “Composite Man” is cheating, and we don’t realize it yet? Let’s look at the evidence. “Facts Not Feelings.” 1. A complete Wyckoff distribution pattern. 2. M.S. confirms we are in a downtrend. So, why is everyone still expecting an uptrend? 1. Traders and investors are relying on historical...

NewThoughtCrypto

NTC Bitcoin Weekly Analysis for August 10th – August 17th: TLDR: • The market structure remains bearish, and the bias remains to the downside. • Should bitcoin pull back to make a higher low or make a higher high, the bias may change to bullish. Weekly Chart: Bitcoin is still moving inside the Descending, Broadening Wedge. Last week, Bitcoin reached a lower...

NewThoughtCrypto Updated 

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin has been in a cycle Wave 4 correction between March 13th and July 5th. The correction took the shape of an Expanding Triangle in five waves. Since July 5th, Bitcoin has completed or almost completed wave 1 of 5. This wave 1 is an extended leading diagonal. Wave 1 completed the minimum requirements. However, it may extend even higher to...

NewThoughtCrypto

Purpose: 1. To aid you in determining a TP target for short positions. 2. Avoid loss by entering a long position prematurely. 3. To point out a possible buyback Zone Description: Ethereum formed an M pattern. This pattern satisfies the initial requirements of a Bullish Bat Formation, which are as follows: 1. Mandatory 50% B-point retracement of the XA...

NewThoughtCrypto

My analysis indicates that Bitcoin is meticulously forming a Bullish Bat Pattern, with a target between 42.5K and 44.3K. XA Leg: The X point begins the impulse wave at 38.55K on January 23rd. The A point terminated at the ATH, 73.77K, on March 13th. AB Leg: The B point is at the 56.55K Low on April 30th. This price is slightly above the 0.5 retracement, the...

NewThoughtCrypto

I understand that my prediction may seem bold. However, I have meticulously conducted a comprehensive analysis that I urge you to review in detail, which should instill confidence in the validity of my prediction. Background: 1. The BTC weekly chart is squared. The price-time ratio is 859. 2. Gan Angles: The central Gann angles are the 1/2 (63), 1/1 (45),...

NewThoughtCrypto

Macro Perspective: Bitcoin is still in a Wyckoff accumulation/distribution schematic. Medium-Term Bias: The Sideways trend is expected to continue until Bitcoin either makes a Lower Low (LL) or breaks above 74K and flips it to support. This process is projected to unfold by October 24. Because of Bitcoin’s lackluster PA and time factors, I am leaning...

NewThoughtCrypto

Everything I wrote in my previous TV idea still applies. Understanding Bitcoin's reaccumulation schematic, which I believe is currently in play, can provide us with valuable insights and potentially profitable opportunities as it resolves to the upside. However, there are a few factors to consider: 1. Assuming this is reaccumulation, will we see a sweep of the...

NewThoughtCrypto

Background: 1. Since February 2023, Bitcoin has been trading in a range. The range high is 73.8K, and the range low is 59.6 K. 2. In real time, It is difficult to determine whether the schematic in play is a reaccumulation or a distribution schematic. To answer this question conclusively, we must wait for the breakdown below or the breakout above the range. ...

NewThoughtCrypto

Clarification: 1. I am hoping ADA will recover and perform well. However, hope is not a trading strategy; this chart is mega-bearish. 2. The chart is on the weekly TF, but the EMAs are the Daily EMAs. Analysis: 1. ADA lost the upward-sloping trendline on April 2nd. 2. ADA was unable to reclaim the uptrend on April 8th. 3. As a result, ADA dropped to its...

NewThoughtCrypto

Support: • Trendline support: 67K. • 50D EMA, currently at 64.8K. • Orange Gann Angle: 60.6K. Resistance: • 21D EMA, currently at 68.5K. • Yellow Gann Angle: 70K. • 71.8K Horizontal support. Do you think the bear market will begin before the halving? I don’t!