NicTheMajestic

NicTheMajestic

If this 5600 level breaks, I expect the decline to continue until may with support around 5400, 5200, and 5000 with 5200 being most likely. The market was hoping for consistent messaging from the Fed, which it did not get. The data shows that inflation is accelerating in the face of job cuts which makes their job very difficult. The are not helping with their...

NicTheMajestic

If you took the trade, good job. We are at the 200 SMA, and this is a natural location to take profits. Expecting some additional chop, the market never moves in a straight line... but the worst of it is over. If we retest the lows, I will buy again. If we retest the highs... or take too long... I will monitor for a new short.

NicTheMajestic

Feel like the current price is "agreement" on a lower price range (boxs). Our new range high is old range low. 2024 Vwap is next interest point. Jobs are a bigger risk than CPI. EOQ / OPEX / FOMC are possible bottoms.

NicTheMajestic

Short Bias into 2025 OPEX. Expect the market to resume higher after quarterly options. "You get 2 dips a year"

NicTheMajestic

2025: - Cut Gov Spending - (Lower GPD) - Cut Gov Temp Workers - (Lower Employment) - Deport Service Workers - (Increasing inflation) - Tarif's - (One time inflation event) Cutting government spending should cause a recession. Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality. 2026: - '2020 Fed Carry' removed - Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans. - Called...

NicTheMajestic

- Yellow line is the VWAP from Jan 2022, last times we tested it the market sold. - White line is the 200 period SMA, last times we tested it the market sold. - Orange dashes is a simple regression channel, last time we tested it the market sold. - Red/green areas show over sold conditions from the Vix ratio and MMTW. - Vix ratio is (VIX9D/VIX1Y) it shows short...

NicTheMajestic

We just had FOMC. "Inflation just as bad as the start of the year" "Less chance of soft landing" "We are ok with over tightening because we have tools" "Too early to even think about talking about a pause" "We have powerful tools for the hot labour market to make it soft"

NicTheMajestic

Nics Plan for Q4. Waiting for IV to compress post earnings. Plan is to short now, and on the way up with a cover in Q1 or when over extended on the down side.

NicTheMajestic

The Economy is breaking. - Fed needs to kill inflation. - Fed is measures future (core) inflation by looking at employment. - Jobs are still strong. Practically, look at XLE, all those oil jobs. - That said, fed can only deal with demand side inflation and has no plan for supply side inflation. - Supply side inflation is the real problem and is controlled by OPEC...

NicTheMajestic Updated 

Here's the formulas I currently use to determine fair value: Fair Value = (Fed Bal Sheet - TGA - RRP)/1.1 - 1625 twitter.com

NicTheMajestic

Or is it ? 4200 was the bottom of pricing in QT. 4000 was the bottom of pricing in Inflation. 3700 was the bottom of pricing in recession. We have solved inflation and recession. so we should hit 4200. 4250 is the VWAP from the high. 4300 has lots of dead buyers. "Solved" I think we can have earning misses in Q3 earnings.

NicTheMajestic

SPX went to the gap, and failed. as predicted. A complex top and test of the 50 SMA is possible. That said, with earning and FOMC next week, grows less likely. A failure of this rally could get bloody, fast.

NicTheMajestic

SPX Touched the JPM Call Wall to the dollar, and hard rejected. I closed longs and now watching as earnings bring the bulls celebrating "4400 is next" back to earth. "Elmo Fire"

NicTheMajestic

Inflation expected to be elevated - White House. CPI Preview of 9% - UBS Last time we had CPI, things went poorly. If this is true, I do not expect the current range to hold.

NicTheMajestic

$SPX JPM quarterly collar just traded for September selling the 4005 calls and buying the 3580/3020 put spread, 45000X. Should be interesting if market ceiling at 4005 now

NicTheMajestic

Next moment of risk is 7/5 to 7/27. We should look for a high between 420 and 390. Dont get greedy.

NicTheMajestic

- How to chart VIX and find the next top. - Find the overall pattern (a wedge). - Look at the angle of last decays - Extrapolate

NicTheMajestic

Market hanging on by a thread. - After testing overnight lows, we had a reversal of market internals (UVOL / DVOL, TICKS, Breadth) and rocketed higher closing the day in the highs. - PCC gave a buy signal mid day, VIX Ratio almost gave a buy signal. - My take away is we should bounce here, but we need to look for a failure near the daily SMAs (20, 50, 100,...