NicTheMajestic

NicTheMajestic

Looking for a slight pullback here. That said, market internals are healthy and looking for 480 EOY.

NicTheMajestic

Still room to run on this rally. Statistical we are due for a 2% correction here. Perhaps to the 20 day SMA. That said, a end of year rally to 480 is technically fine.

NicTheMajestic

Every trader worth their salt needs to trade in at least one crappy biotech. I say trade, but chances are you will end up an investor... just like those guys who bought at $100. AXSM has a very nice pipeline. The drop was due to incorrect FDA filing. Perhaps the clean up their act and release some drugs for all the kids (and elderly) to enjoy.

05:00

NicTheMajestic Updated 

I was meditating on the container ship issue. The root issue is China does not need raw materials for construction, because they overbuilt. Theis is due to the evergrande situation, and the collapse of their real estate sector. Their alternative to real-estate was tech, specifically the Digital Yuan. The problem was it was bad, really bad. Instead of making DY...

NicTheMajestic

Bullish above 378 Bearish below 373 Short Entry around 376 (Vwap from top, 20 day SMA) Long entry around 369 (Vwap from july low, 50 day SMA, Upper BBand)

NicTheMajestic

How I am looking at the market. Currently scalping the chop with a mean reversion bias. Expecting increase volatility both directions.

NicTheMajestic

Looks like a 50 SMA test. Any lower and we open the door for a test of the 100 SMA. This sell off is different than the last few, feels more like march than june. Wait for confirmation before buying the dip.

03:23

NicTheMajestic

Classic retest of the 20 SMA. Look at the SPY, my gameplan, and a few other indices.

04:27

NicTheMajestic

Economic Outlook for 9/17 Correction. Review of the market using DOW theory, VIX indicators, Mcellen indicators, and SMAs.

NicTheMajestic

Left side is current market. notice the perfect time cycles. Right side is last year. notice how the vix rainbow is signaling on the right but not yet on the left. Safe short would be to give current market another week or 2.

NicTheMajestic

Options Expiration is a hell of a drug. Look at those cycles ending on the 19th of every month!

NicTheMajestic

Poor Breadth Poor Vix Ratio High Vix Correlation Market is over extended (what is this, a 5% rally without a 1% drawdown ?!) Looking for short entries in rate sensitive names otherwise cash. If we do sell off hard, targeting the 50 and 100 daily SMA.

NicTheMajestic

Not yet > 0 on the 10 period correlation. When it does hit 0, consider it an early warning shot.

NicTheMajestic

Pretty strong bull pattern, but this pattern does have regular retests of the 50 SMA. The end of the current cycle could coincide with Jackson hole, maybe tapering news?

NicTheMajestic

Could be a floor for yields. if not, 1.2 is possible. Might mark the end of this rotation. Looking at how commodities and tech react, will we go back to the rotation we had in early 2020?

NicTheMajestic

- Poor Breath - Poor Vix - Vix ratio signaling

NicTheMajestic

- Breadth sucks - VIX is signaling, especially with banks and tech - Earnings next week - Bonds signaling - CQQQ signaling - Bearish bias, but expecting "Le Chop Chop" around here - Playing each level, waiting for volume reversals then trading with your favorite momo indicator

NicTheMajestic

Hedges for the long weekend ?